Scowcroft Center Research & Reports

Welcome to 2034: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts  

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the likelihood of war over Taiwan to the future of AI.

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Russia’s growing dark fleet: Risks for the global maritime order

By Elisabeth Braw

Russia’s dark fleet poses a significant threat to maritime security, forming the basis of Moscow’s grayzone aggression against Western institutions.

Navigating Sweden’s NATO membership: Insights for political and operational adaptation

By Viltaute Zarembaite, Christopher Skaluba, Ann Marie Dailey

Sweden is on the cusp of joining Finland as NATO’s newest members, bridging a crucial gap in the region’s security architecture and creating new opportunities for closer security cooperation. Once Sweden is in NATO, the Baltic Sea will be a geographically coherent strategic space—or, in more casual parlance, a “NATO lake.”

Evolving cooperative security approaches for tomorrow’s realities

By John T. Watts

US security cooperation, which are military aid activities led or executed by the US Department of Defense, is immensely valuable if done right and can help the United States achieve its goal from the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) by building a strong coalition of allies to confront shared challenges.

A security strategy for the Black Sea

By Atlantic Council Task Force on Black Sea Security

This report outlines the strategic setting, regional challenges and threats, key planning assumptions, risk and risk mitigation, and finally DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) based recommendations for enhancing security and stability in the Black Sea region.

Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan: Scenarios and considerations for the United States

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues the US and the PRC would have incentives to use nuclear weapons in a Taiwan war. The US must deter PRC nuclear use.

Four scenarios for the future of multilateral peacebuilding and conflict prevention

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi, Imran Bayoumi

The scenarios on this page explore four alternative, plausible narratives envisioning the world in the mid-2030s, guided by dynamic interactions of drivers and trends highlighted in the larger The Future of Multilateral Peacebuilding and Conflict Prevention report.

The future of multilateral peacebuilding and conflict prevention

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi, Imran Bayoumi

The multilateral system, defined as the set of rules, norms, and institutions that together constitute the world’s governance architecture, is not static.

Ten challenges to implementing Force Design 2030

By Bruce Stubbs

Bruce Stubbs points out key questions for the success of the US Marine Corps’s Force Design 2030.