The Tiger Project: War and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

Moscow and Pyongyang are devising and developing new business practices to supply each other while evading the reach of many US sanctions.

The US and its allies took note when China launched large military exercises around Taiwan just after October 10. But it’s also important to pay attention to how Taiwanese reacted to Beijing’s saber-rattling.

The new Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience could enable faster provisioning of resources to Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, or even the United States if a war breaks out. 

Washington, Manila, and their Indo-Pacific allies must work together to counter China’s maritime aggression in Philippine waters.

In the Philippines, China’s aggression is not in some shadowy, ill-defined “gray zone.” It’s a real and constant series of attacks on the country’s people and sovereignty.

To better prepare Taiwan to defend itself, the United States needs more transparency into Taipei’s weapons integration challenges.

Resilience is a nation’s ability to understand, address, respond to, and recover from any type of national security risk. Given the scale of risk Taiwan faces from mainland China, domestic resilience should be front and center in Taiwan’s national security strategy, encompassing areas such as cybersecurity, energy security, and defense resilience.

Production diplomacy provides opportunities to protect supply chains, strengthen alliances and partnerships, enhance deterrence, and build defense readiness, though it is not without risks and challenges.

Marek Jestrab considers a naval blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China and advances recommendations for the United States, Taiwan, and likeminded nations to resist and respond to a blockade.

Matthew Kroenig argues the US and the PRC would have incentives to use nuclear weapons in a Taiwan war. The US must deter PRC nuclear use.

Conventional wisdom in the United States holds that deterrence in Korea is strong, but this widespread confidence is based on a backward look at long-standing assumptions that are no longer tenable, along with rapidly shifting politico-military conditions. This report explains the urgent actions required to get ahead of these changes and maintain effective deterrence.

This report highlights two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security: 1) Horizontal escalation of a conflict with China or North Korea into simultaneous conflict; 2) Vertical escalation to a limited nuclear attack by either or both adversaries to avoid conceding.