Wed, Aug 28, 2019

US-EU Auto Tariffs: What’s at Stake?

Escalating trade tensions between the world’s major economies are widely considered the greatest threat to the global economy’s health. Following the White House’s cancellation of its threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports on June 7, attention swiftly turned back to the brewing US-China trade war. This edition of the EconoGraphic, however, puts the focus on how US tariffs on cars and car parts might disrupt transatlantic trade flow.

EconoGraphics by OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

Economy & Business European Union

Fri, Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

n July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

EconoGraphics by BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

Tue, Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

EconoGraphics by OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

China Economy & Business

Mon, Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

EconoGraphics by BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

Cuba Economic Sanctions

Mon, Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

Wed, Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Fri, Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

Blogs by Global Business & Economics Program

China Economy & Business

Wed, Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

China Economic Sanctions

Tue, Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Tue, Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Experts

Content

Mon, Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

EconoGraphics by Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

Economy & Business European Union

Wed, Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

EconoGraphics by Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

Economy & Business European Union

Thu, Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

China Economic Sanctions

Fri, Jun 22, 2018

There’s a New Tariff in Town: Implications of Trump’s Steel Tariffs

Economists consider tariffs a tax on consumers. Case in point, President Trump’s former chief economic advisor Gary Cohn. He recently warned that the administration’s twenty-five percent tariff on steel and ten percent tariff on aluminum combined with threatened duties on Chinese goods could cancel out the 2017 tax cut. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides an overview of how the Trump Administration’s steel tariffs might impact the US economy.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

Economy & Business Trade

Mon, Jun 4, 2018

GDPR’s Quest for World Domination

On May 25, the European Union’s (EU) sweeping new data privacy regulation came into force. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provides EU residents with more control and protection of their data.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

Brazil Economy & Business

Fri, May 18, 2018

US Sanctions’ Global Impact – A Case Study of RUSAL’s Supply Chain

On April 6, 2018, the Trump Administration imposed stiff economic sanctions on 37 Russian oligarchs, oligarch-owned companies, Russian government officials, and state-owned companies.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Thu, Apr 12, 2018

Africa Embraces the Promise of Free Trade

Africa Embraces the Promise of Free Trade

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr, Zachary Coles, and Alexatrini Tsiknia

Africa Economic Sanctions

Tue, Mar 20, 2018

Venezuela’s Cryptocurrency: Should OFAC Be Petrofied?

Venezuela's Cryptocurrency: Should OFAC be Petrofied? The short answer is no.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr, Zachary Coles, and Alexatrini Tsiknia

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Mon, Feb 26, 2018

Are Italians giving the establishment the boot?

Italians go to the polls on March 4th to elect a new government. Under a new electoral system, the outcome is uncertain. The Global Business and Economics program looks at some key economic indicators that could influence the election.

EconoGraphics by Alexatrini Tsiknia and Ole Moehr

Economy & Business European Union

Tue, Feb 6, 2018

Secondary Sanctions: A First Glance

This edition of our EconoGraphic blog explains the difference between primary and secondary sanctions, outlines how secondary sanctions work, and uses a case study to demonstrate how the United States employs secondary sanctions in the real economy.

EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr

China Economic Sanctions