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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

editor’s picks

Latest analysis

UkraineAlert

Jul 6, 2023

Wagner fallout: Time to begin preparing for a post-Putin Russia

By Oleksiy Goncharenko

As we assess the fallout from the Wagner revolt, it no longer makes sense to be afraid of a new Russian collapse. On the contrary, the time has come to begin preparing for the possibility of a post-Putin Russia, writes Oleksiy Goncharenko.

Conflict
Disinformation

UkraineAlert

Jul 6, 2023

Wagner putsch is symptomatic of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline

By Richard Cashman, Lesia Ogryzko

The attempted putsch by Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his Wagner troops in late June is perhaps best understood as a symptom of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline, writes Richard Cashman and Lesia Ogryzko.

Civil Society
Conflict

UkraineAlert

Jun 29, 2023

Putin’s Wagner weakness is a signal to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive

By Taras Kuzio

With the short-lived Wagner mutiny exposing Vladimir Putin’s weakness for all to see, the time has come for Ukraine’s Western partners to provide the country with everything it needs to secure victory, writes Taras Kuzio.

Conflict
Freedom and Prosperity

UkraineAlert

Jun 28, 2023

Wagner drama drags Belarus deeper into Russia’s wartime turbulence

By Hanna Liubakova

News that Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin and many of his battle-hardened troops will be exiled to Belarus has sparked concerns that the country is being dragged further into Russia’s wartime turmoil, writes Hanna Liubakova.

Belarus
Civil Society

UkraineAlert

Jun 27, 2023

Ukrainians have good reason to cheer Russia’s Wagner rebellion

By Andriy Zagorodnyuk

Ukrainians have good reason to cheer the short-lived Wagner mutiny, which has removed Russia’s most effective military units from the battlefield while exposing the weakness of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, writes Andriy Zagorodnyuk.

Conflict
Defense Policy

UkraineAlert

Jun 26, 2023

How Ukraine can pin down Russia in Crimea without a land campaign

By John B. Barranco

Many analysts believe Ukraine must liberate Crimea in order to win the war, but it could be possible to render the peninsula strategically irrelevant for Russia without launching a major land campaign, writes John B. Barranco.

Conflict
Defense Policy

UkraineAlert

Jun 26, 2023

Five steps toward Ukrainian victory and a lasting peace with Russia

By Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk offers his five-step vision for the decisive defeat of Russia’s Ukraine invasion and a genuinely sustainable peace in Eastern Europe.

Conflict
Eastern Europe

UkraineAlert

Jun 25, 2023

Short-lived Wagner mutiny will undermine Russia’s Ukraine invasion

By Peter Dickinson

The short-lived Wagner mutiny was over in less than two days but it will have a long-lasting consequences for Russia, for a weakened Vladimir Putin, and for the already faltering invasion of Ukraine, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict
Defense Policy

Fast Thinking

Jun 24, 2023

Prigozhin walks away. Where does his halted mutiny leave Putin?

By Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council experts share their insights on what happened with the Wagner Group founder’s halted mutiny and what it says about the stability of Putin’s regime and the war in Ukraine.

Conflict
Europe & Eurasia

UkraineAlert

Jun 22, 2023

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is a marathon not a blitzkrieg

By Peter Dickinson

Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has barely begun and already some are dismissing it as a failure due to lack of immediate progress. In reality, the unfolding campaign is a marathon and not a blitzkrieg, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict
Defense Policy

spotlight

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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Content

UkraineAlert

Feb 21, 2022

Putin escalates his Ukraine war with recognition of separatist republics

By Peter Dickinson

Eight years since the invasion of Crimea, Putin struck another blow in his war against Ukrainian statehood on February 21 by recognizing the two separatist republics of east Ukraine as independent states.

Conflict
Disinformation

UkraineAlert

Feb 20, 2022

Putin’s self-defeating war has succeeded in uniting Ukrainians

By Lucy Minicozzi-Wheeland

Vladimir Putin’s eight-year war against Ukraine has had a profound impact on Ukrainian identity and done more for national unity than any other single factor since Ukraine regained independence three decades ago.

Civil Society
Conflict

UkraineAlert

Feb 19, 2022

NATO must seize the current strategic opportunity in the Black Sea

By Harlan Ullman

The Ukraine crisis has underlined the need for NATO to develop a coherent Black Sea Strategy that will allow the alliance to counter the growing regional threat posed by Vladimir Putin's resurgent Russia.

Conflict
Maritime Security

UkraineAlert

Feb 19, 2022

Will there be a “Munich Moment” in the Russia-Ukraine crisis?

By Thomas S. Warrick

A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine could yet be prevented via a "Munich moment" bringing together Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden to strike a last-minute geopolitical deal, writes Thomas Warrick.

Conflict
Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

UkraineAlert

Feb 18, 2022

Putin’s absurd genocide claims cannot hide his war crimes in Ukraine

By Olexander Scherba

Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to claim that an anti-Russian genocide is underway in Ukraine but in reality he is upset by the historical loss of influence suffered by representatives of the Russian state.

Conflict
Disinformation

UkraineAlert

Feb 17, 2022

What would constitute victory for Putin in his war with Ukraine?

By David Batashvili

In order to achieve his long-term foreign policy goal of subjugating a hostile Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin must militarily seize and occupy a large portion of what is the largest country wholly in Europe.

Conflict
National Security

UkraineAlert

Feb 16, 2022

Putin has seriously wounded Ukraine’s economy without firing a single shot

By Anders Åslund

Even without physically invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is already causing the country great economic losses. The West cannot stand by and watch this happen, explains Anders Åslund.

Conflict
Democratic Transitions

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2022

The view from Ukraine: What happens if war breaks out tomorrow?

By Vitaliy Deynega

Vitaliy Deynega says Ukraine has never been more united or able to defend itself and argues that Putin's threatened invasion is a gesture of despair by an enemy who cannot accept he has already lost.

Civil Society
Conflict

UkraineAlert

Feb 14, 2022

Russia may dodge sanctions by using Putin proxies to invade Ukraine

By Pavlo Kukhta, Viktoria Podhorna, Mykyta Poturaev, Yehor Chernev

With Russia facing the possibility of crushing sanctions over the threatened invasion of Ukraine, Putin may prefer to deploy hybrid forces made up of regular Russian troops and mercenaries posing as Ukrainian separatists.

Conflict
Disinformation

UkraineAlert

Feb 11, 2022

Free trade and drones: Turkey and Ukraine strengthen strategic ties

By Christopher Isajiw

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy welcomed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Kyiv in early February for a visit that underlined the deepening strategic partnership between the two Black Sea nations.

Conflict
Defense Industry