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Inflection Points

Aug 2, 2020

China focus might distract the U.S. from the possibility of a Putin surprise in Belarus and beyond

By Frederick Kempe

For all the legitimate focus on rising US-China tensions, this summer’s sleeper surprise for the West is more likely to emerge from Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The question is: will it grow from Russia’s strength, its weakness or some combination of the two?

Belarus Russia

Inflection Points

Jul 26, 2020

U.S.-China confrontation is like nothing we’ve seen before

By Frederick Kempe

The escalating confrontation between the United States and China is so perilous because the world’s two largest economies – and the two defining countries of their times – are navigating uncharted terrain. It isn’t a struggle over “world domination,” which no country has ever achieved, but it could have significant impact on “world determination.”

China Conflict

Inflection Points

Jul 19, 2020

China has already decided Cold War II has begun – now it’s escalating

By Frederick Kempe

Trump administration officials believe their increasing efforts to counter a more assertive China could prove to be their most significant foreign policy legacy. That will only be true if they can combine it with a strategy that can sustain the effort in concert with allies and far beyond the limits of any single U.S. administration.

China Political Reform

Inflection Points

Jul 12, 2020

Germany and Merkel have a shot at making both European and transatlantic history

By Frederick Kempe

History rarely provides major countries and their leaders the enormity of the second chance that Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel now enjoy as they begin their six-month European Union presidency.

China European Union
World leaders gather around a conference table

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 3: New Renaissance

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.

Coronavirus
A woman wearing a protective mask is seen past a portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping on a street as the country is hit by an outbreak of the coronavirus, in Shanghai, China March 12, 2020

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 2: China first

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its "Belts and Roads" assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
Foreign workers wearing protective face masks queue to use an ATM

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
A paramedic uses an infrared thermometer to measure the temperature of a police officer alongside a road during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to slow the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Ahmedabad, India, April 9, 2020. REUTERS/Amit Dave

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan's military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country's weak public health system.

Coronavirus South Asia
Coronavirus Cases Increase to 200 in Brazil

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.

Coronavirus Latin America
Russian President Vladimir Putin work before a meeting on the situation with the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Russia, outside Moscow

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

An economic test for Putin and Russia

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.

Coronavirus Russia
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