Post-COVID-19

In late May, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pivoted from lockdown to reopening despite the continuing rise in cases of COVID-19, more than 140,000.  Admitting that the virus will be part of Indian life, Modi called for Indians to get back to work. The government worries about the collapse of the economy and strained public finances.¹Amy Kazmin, “India’s Draconian Lockdown Gives Way to a Sudden Easing,” Financial Times, May 25, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/f86d3fda-9e72-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d.

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Goldman Sachs has forecasted India’s GDP “will contract 45 per cent quarter-on-quarter from April to June.”²Ibid. The lockdown in India in late March caused widespread confusion, interrupting the flow of essential supplies such as food and causing a migrant crisis.³Soutik Biswas, “Will Coronavirus Lockdown Cause Food Shortages in India?” BBC, April 7, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52176564. India, which is the world’s largest producer of generic drugs, had banned in early March the export of the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine, which has been touted by some, including Trump, as being able to treat COVID-19. India later lifted the ban after apparent pressure from Trump.⁴Hannah Ellis-Petersen, “India Releases Hydroxychloroquine Stocks Amid Pressure from Trump,” Guardian, April 7, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/ world/2020/apr/07/india-releases-hydroxychloroquine-stocks-amid-pressure-from-trump.

US global leadership at risk

This article is part of a series examining the ways that US global leadership could be threatened in a post-COVID-19 world. Click below to read the main entry in the series.

There is, however, continuing controversy over the claims about hydroxychloroquine with Trump admitting in May that he was taking the drug. While some French tests have suggested chloroquine could be helpful, other small trials from China indicate that the drug has little impact. As of late May, France had banned the use of hydroxycholoroquine to treat COVID-19 patients. Some US medical experts believe it has worsened the condition of patients. The WHO is undertaking further investigations. 

In Pakistan, the civilian government has played down the threat of the virus.  Over Ramadan, the number of COVID-19 cases quadrupled and there were more than 48,000 cases increasing by 30 percent in one week in mid-May.⁵Susannah George, “Pakistan’s Coronavirus Caes Quadruple During the Holy Month of Ramadan—And Show No Signs of Slowing,” Washington Post, May 21, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistans-coronavirus-cases-quadruple-during-the-holy-month-of-ramadan–and-show-no-signs-of-slowing/2020/05/21/80e17cde-9aac-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html.

Religious authorities want to do away with any restrictions on gatherings while Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, like Modi, worries about economic costs of any form of continued lockdown. The military had tried to enforce a lockdown in late March, but many of the restrictions had begun to ease by early May. Pakistan’s public health system is extremely ill-equipped to handle any crisis—it only has, for example, 600 ICU beds for Karachi’s population of 20 million. 

See where US leadership is most vulnerable

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

A step change in Sino-American relations

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Bipartisan agreement that China is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with frustration that China is pulling out of the crisis before the US, could strengthen China’s authoritarian tendencies while pushing the US toward isolationism.

China Coronavirus

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Another test for Europe

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The third pan-European crisis in a decade could further weaken EU solidarity, further widening gaps between Northern Europe and the Mediterranean South. Europe is unlikely to retain a multilateralist framework without US assistance and acquiescence from China.

Coronavirus Europe & Eurasia

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

East Asian allies dismayed by America first approach

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Absent a vibrant American commitment to helping its traditional East Asian allies restart their economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China could step in, gaining influence in East Asia at the US’s expense.

Coronavirus East Asia

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Middle East in turmoil even before pandemic hit

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak public health systems, an over-reliance on hydrocarbons for economic growth, and a collapse in tourism point to particular disaster across the Middle East. Recovery will be long and slow absent intervention from non-regional powers.

Coronavirus Middle East

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent’s recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.

Africa Coronavirus

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

An economic test for Putin and Russia

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.

Coronavirus Russia

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.

Coronavirus Latin America

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan’s military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country’s weak public health system.

Coronavirus South Asia

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Prospects for the COVID-19 pandemic

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The COVID-19 pandemic is not just a global health crisis. It could spark global recession, while undermining globalism, cooperation and multilateralism, ushering in a renewed era of authoritarianism, isolation and open conflict between global powers.

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About the authors

Staff

Mathew Burrows

Director of Foresight, Scowcroft Strategy Initiative

New American Engagement Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Non-Traditional Threats Technology & Innovation

Staff

Peter Engelke

Deputy Director of Foresight, Scowcroft Strategy Initiative

Global Energy Center Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Technology & Innovation Europe & Eurasia

Image: A paramedic uses an infrared thermometer to measure the temperature of a police officer alongside a road during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to slow the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Ahmedabad, India, April 9, 2020. REUTERS/Amit Dave