Non-traditional threats

China is militarizing its coast guard against Taiwan. Here’s how Taipei and its allies can respond.

By Kitsch Liao

As new evidence emerges about China's long-suspected practice of using its coast guard for military purposes, Taiwan and the US have the tools to push back.

As Chinese EVs threaten to overrun Europe, Germany should ramp up supply-chain investment

By Joseph Webster

Electric vehicles and their associated technologies are an important security-related investment for Germany and other European powers right now.

How US military action against drug cartels in Mexico could unfold

By James Fowler and Alicia Nieves

A potential four-part scenario can be constructed by examining recent developments in the US-Mexico relationship and US counterterrorism efforts.

Nasrallah’s funeral was Hezbollah’s desperately needed lifeline

By David Daoud

By bringing the community out to Nasrallah’s funeral in the hundreds of thousands, Hezbollah sent a message to its domestic opponents and the government.

Global Foresight 2025

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our team of next-generation scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2025 and beyond. And our foresight practitioners imagine three different scenarios for the next decade.

The Global Foresight 2025 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2025

By Emily Milliken, Imran Bayoumi, Ginger Matchett, Srujan Palkar, Sydney Sherry

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsized impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

From Russia’s shadow fleet to China’s maritime claims: The freedom of the seas is under threat

By Elisabeth Braw

This report analyzes the deterioration of the global maritime order, focusing on rule violations in areas including maritime border alteration, harassment of civilian vessels, and disturbance of navigational tools

The threats posed by the global shadow fleet—and how to stop it

By Elisabeth Braw

Since 2022 the number of aging ships whose ownership, insurance status, and safety is unknown has exploded, prompted by Russia's reliance on this "dark fleet" to ship its oil in defiance of Western sanctions. What can be done about this environmental, economic, and safety threat on the high seas?