Middle East Programs Commentary & Analysis

IRGC’s Gulf Antics: A Strategy to Undermine the Nuclear Deal?

By Owen Daniels

Iran’s recent aggression toward US forces in the Persian Gulf may be part of a strategy among the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other hardline elements to goad Trump into a rash decision on the nuclear deal that earns them a political payday.   On August 8, Iran flew a drone within one hundred […]

The Ramifications of Rouhani’s Reelection

By Masoud Mostajabi

A new poll of Iranian public opinion shows rising support for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) coupled with a willingness by Iranians to support restarting suspended aspects of the country’s nuclear program if the United States walks away from the JCPOA. These findings were among those revealed on July 28, 2017, when the […]

Shots Fired in the Gulf

By Owen Daniels

Iran challenges US policy, this time in the maritime domain It seems hard for the United States to catch a break in the Persian Gulf these days. As its Arab partners continue to bicker among themselves, Iran remains a source of tension from across the water. A week after US President Donald J. Trump reluctantly […]

A Widening Gulf

By Owen Daniels

Qatar crisis creates a headache for the United States Nearly two months in, the diplomatic crisis between the Arab Gulf states is growing ever more complicated. The July 16 Washington Post report that cites unnamed US intelligence officials as claiming that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) precipitated the diplomatic row with Qatar by hacking Qatari […]

The origins and evolution of ISIS in Libya

By Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East

The Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East launched a new report, the origins and evolution of ISIS in Libya, authored by Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, and Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Karim Mezran. Jason Pack is the Founder and Director of Eye on ISIS in Libya and Rhiannon Smith is the Managing Director of Eye […]

The United States and Iran: Future Tense

Washington’s increased pressure on Tehran and a diplomatic crisis in the Middle East have created an “incredibly unpredictable” political playing field between two longstanding adversaries, according to a regional analyst. “You can posit an array of catastrophic scenarios given the pace and intensity of frictions… between Iran, the United States, and other players,” said Suzanne […]

Iranians Vote for Competence Over Ideology

By Barbara Slavin

Iranians celebrated in the streets of their cities this past weekend out of relief that the most capable candidate on offer won the presidential election held on May 19. Incumbent President Hassan Rouhani’s solid victory over a younger and more hardline cleric, Ebrahim Raisi, was a triumph of competence over ideology and of openness over […]

Arab Gulf States Set to Woo Trump

During US President Donald J. Trump’s upcoming trip to Riyadh, Gulf leaders will seek to portray themselves as capable partners for the United States in countering common threats, namely violent extremism and Iranian aggression, according to an Atlantic Council analyst. Throughout the summit, leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will “want to make […]