Shaping the post-COVID-19 world together

Issue briefs and reports

Jul 7, 2020

What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the pandemic and possible directions for the global system after the still-unfolding crisis.

Coronavirus G20
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about the series:

Shaping the post-COVID-19 world together Scenario 1:
Great accelerator downwards Scenario 2:
China first Scenario 3:
New Renaissance

Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era?

Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era? The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed pressure points in the global order and threatens to unravel the rules-based international system. This paper examines the geopolitical implications of the pandemic by identifying key strategic shocks and tensions exacerbated by the virus. It also identifies uncertainties for the global order and provides policy recommendations for how the United States and its allies should address the pandemic.

A global strategy for shaping the post-COVID-19 world

The COVID-19 pandemic is an acute public health and economic crisis that is further destabilizing an already weakened rules-based international system. With cooperation, determination, and resolve, however, the United States and its allies can recover from the crisis and revitalize an adapted rules-based system to bring about decades of future freedom, peace, and prosperity.

What World Post-COVID-19

This paper is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and sketches three scenarios for the possible direction of the global system post-COVID-19.

Defense, survival, and fiction: Implications of COVID-19

Max Brooks joins the Scowcroft Center for a virtual ‘fireside chat’ on the lessons of fiction for disaster preparedness, pandemic prevention, and national defense in the era of COVID-19.

China’s COVID-19 statistics resemble horrific past

The curious spikes in confirmed cases in China following changes in leadership or policy events evokes the terrible statistical manipulation and suffering of the Great Leap Forward.
Atlantic Council’s Coronavirus coverage

The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

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Content

In the News

Jul 8, 2020

Remes for McKinsey Global Institute: Prioritizing health: A prescription for prosperity

By Atlantic Council

Africa Americas

In the News

Jul 8, 2020

Remes in Project Syndicate: Seizing the Health Opportunity

By Atlantic Council

Africa Americas

New Atlanticist

Jul 7, 2020

White House’s Birx: China’s delay in sharing COVID-19 information hampered international responses

By David A. Wemer

The White House’s lead coronavirus-response coordinator has criticized Chinese officials for a “delay in information” on the outbreak of the virus in January, which she argued hampered the ability of other countries to respond effectively to the pandemic.

China Coronavirus
World leaders gather around a conference table

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 3: New Renaissance

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.

Coronavirus
A woman wearing a protective mask is seen past a portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping on a street as the country is hit by an outbreak of the coronavirus, in Shanghai, China March 12, 2020

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 2: China first

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its "Belts and Roads" assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
Foreign workers wearing protective face masks queue to use an ATM

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
A paramedic uses an infrared thermometer to measure the temperature of a police officer alongside a road during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to slow the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Ahmedabad, India, April 9, 2020. REUTERS/Amit Dave

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan's military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country's weak public health system.

Coronavirus South Asia
Coronavirus Cases Increase to 200 in Brazil

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.

Coronavirus Latin America
Russian President Vladimir Putin work before a meeting on the situation with the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Russia, outside Moscow

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

An economic test for Putin and Russia

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.

Coronavirus Russia
Door-to-door testing in an attempt to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Umlazi township near Durban

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent's recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.

Africa Coronavirus
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