The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.

Arms Control China

Commentary & quick analysis

New Atlanticist

Nov 5, 2024

Nuclear weapons on the battlefield are a growing risk. US and allied militaries should prepare now.

By Brad T. Gericke and Donna Wilt

US military and defense thinkers must overcome two major misconceptions that for too long have shaped US actions regarding nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Oct 28, 2024

How the US can counter Russian and Chinese nuclear threats in space

By Peter L. Hays and Sarah Mineiro

As China and Russia bolster their counterspace capabilities, the United States must modernize its space-based nuclear command.

China Nuclear Deterrence

New Atlanticist

Jul 30, 2024

To deter Russia, NATO must adapt its nuclear sharing program

By Michael John Williams

Russian President Vladimir Putin has time and again played the United States and its European allies, believing that they are too scared of the long shadow cast by nuclear weapons to push back against his threats.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Jul 3, 2024

Don’t cut corners on US nuclear deterrence

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Bipartisan support for modernizing and expanding the US nuclear arsenal will be essential for the United States to deter its adversaries.

Conflict Defense Industry

New Atlanticist

May 21, 2024

Congress should save the Sentinel ICBM—its true value is more than simply its cost

By James McCue

The value of the new intercontinental ballistic missile program should be measured over its full lifetime and not just by its current price tag.

Defense Technologies National Security

Reports & issue briefs

Issue Brief

Jan 31, 2024

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on deterrence

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

With North Korea’s rapidly advancing military technology, aggressive nuclear policy changes, and deepening ties with the PRC making deterrence on the Korean Peninsula increasingly more complex, this is how the US and South Korea can shore up cooperative deterrence and boost alliance resilience.

China Defense Policy
Snow leopard in the rain

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jan 17, 2024

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Climate Change & Climate Action Defense Technologies
Image for Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan: Scenarios and considerations for the United States

Report

Nov 30, 2023

Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan: Scenarios and considerations for the United States

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues the US and the PRC would have incentives to use nuclear weapons in a Taiwan war. The US must deter PRC nuclear use.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Nov 22, 2023

The role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan crisis

By Gregory Weaver

Nuclear deterrence would be key in a Taiwan crisis, in part because a PLA amphibious fleet would be vulnerable to a US nuclear strike.

China Conflict

Issue Brief

Nov 15, 2023

US homeland missile defense: Room for expanded roles

By Robert Soofer and Matthew Costlow

Matthew Costlow & Robert Soofer explore how expanded roles for US homeland missile defense could enhance deterrence with two nuclear peers

China Defense Policy

Past events

In the news

In the News

Nov 22, 2024

Mezey quoted in The New York Times on Ukrainian long-range missile strikes into Russia

By Atlantic Council

On Tuesday, November 19, an excerpt from former Forward Defense Program Assistant Jacob Mezey’s Issue Brief “Russian and Chinese strategic missile defense: Doctrine, capabilities, and development” was quoted by an article in The New York Times covering Ukrainian long-range missile strikes into Russia using US-made ATACMS systems.

Conflict Missile Defense

In the News

Nov 18, 2024

Soofer quoted in Breaking Defense on the production timeline for the sub-launched cruise missile

By Atlantic Council

On November 15, Forward Defense Senior Fellow Rob Soofer was quoted in an article for Breaking Defense on the challenges to producing the nuclear submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N).

Defense Industry Defense Policy

In the News

Nov 6, 2024

Michta for RealClearDefense on how the Pentagon must re-strategize weapon procurement

On November 4, Director and Senior Fellow of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative Dr. Andrew Michta published an article or RealClearDefense on the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine and how Pentagon planners and defense contractors should re-strategize its approach to weapons and munitions procurement. He pointed out that the most sophisticated long-range precision fire […]

Defense Industry Defense Policy

In the News

Oct 22, 2024

Braw in Foreign Policy on Russia’s infamous arms dealer Viktor Bout’s connection with the Houthis

By Elisabeth Braw

On October 22, Transatlantic Security Initiative senior fellow Elisabeth Braw wrote an op-ed in Foreign Policy discussing Russia’s infamous arm dealer Viktor Bout’s connections with the Houthis in Yemen.

Arms Control Europe & Eurasia

In the News

Oct 18, 2024

Soofer published in The National Interest on homeland missile defense

By Atlantic Council

On October 16, Forward Defense Senior Fellow Rob Soofer published an article in the National Interest with co-author Dr. Peppino DeBiaso titled “A Homeland Missile Defense Agenda for the Next President.”

Defense Industry Defense Policy

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Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.