The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

Strategic Insights Memo

Mar 12, 2025

The hypersonic imperative

By Michael E. White

Hypersonic weapons and counter-hypersonic defenses will be essential for the United States to deter and, if necessary, prevail in a war against one or more great powers. This is why the Department of Defense and Congress must prioritize the accelerated fielding of these capabilities.

China Defense Industry

New Atlanticist

Nov 5, 2024

Nuclear weapons on the battlefield are a growing risk. US and allied militaries should prepare now.

By Brad T. Gericke and Donna Wilt

US military and defense thinkers must overcome two major misconceptions that for too long have shaped US actions regarding nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Oct 28, 2024

How the US can counter Russian and Chinese nuclear threats in space

By Peter L. Hays and Sarah Mineiro

As China and Russia bolster their counterspace capabilities, the United States must modernize its space-based nuclear command.

China Nuclear Deterrence

New Atlanticist

Jul 30, 2024

To deter Russia, NATO must adapt its nuclear sharing program

By Michael John Williams

Russian President Vladimir Putin has time and again played the United States and its European allies, believing that they are too scared of the long shadow cast by nuclear weapons to push back against his threats.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Jul 3, 2024

Don’t cut corners on US nuclear deterrence

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Bipartisan support for modernizing and expanding the US nuclear arsenal will be essential for the United States to deter its adversaries.

Conflict Defense Industry

Reports & issue briefs

Issue Brief

Nov 15, 2023

US homeland missile defense: Room for expanded roles

By Robert Soofer and Matthew Costlow

Matthew Costlow & Robert Soofer explore how expanded roles for US homeland missile defense could enhance deterrence with two nuclear peers

China Defense Policy
A general view of fire assault drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea March 10, 2023, in this photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Credit: KCNA via REUTERS

Report

Nov 9, 2023

Deterrence is crumbling in Korea: How we can fix it

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

Conventional wisdom in the United States holds that deterrence in Korea is strong, but this widespread confidence is based on a backward look at long-standing assumptions that are no longer tenable, along with rapidly shifting politico-military conditions. This report explains the urgent actions required to get ahead of these changes and maintain effective deterrence.

China Indo-Pacific

Report

Oct 26, 2023

Continued US and allied integration is essential to deter Russian CBRN use

By Natasha Lander Finch, Ryan Arick, Christopher Skaluba

This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Atlantic Council project Conceptualizing Integrated Deterrence to Address Russian Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Escalation. The objective of this project was to develop an approach for incorporating European allies and partners into the US model of integrated deterrence against Russian CBRN use.

Arms Control Defense Policy

Report

Aug 16, 2023

The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

By Markus Garlauskas

This report highlights two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security: 1) Horizontal escalation of a conflict with China or North Korea into simultaneous conflict; 2) Vertical escalation to a limited nuclear attack by either or both adversaries to avoid conceding.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Aug 16, 2023

Biases blind us to the risk of Chinese military intervention in Korea

By Jonathan Corrado

This paper examines the historical record of cognitive biases, focusing on the US intelligence community’s failure to forecast PRC intervention in the Korean War, despite collecting information and evidence indicative of that outcome.

Arms Control China

Past events

In the news

In the News

Apr 24, 2025

Soofer and Massa discuss homeland missile defense on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory speaker series

By Atlantic Council

On March 6, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for GlobalSecurity Research featured Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer and Forward Defense deputy director Mark Massa in their ongoing speaker series. In the dialogue, they discuss the future of homeland missile defense, specifically in reference to their co-authored report, “‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Apr 17, 2025

Soofer quoted in Politico article entitled, “Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War”

By Atlantic Council

On April 11, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in a Politico article entitled, “Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War.” In discussing US extended deterrence, Soofer is quoted saying, “What makes the South Koreans nervous is the fear that we wouldn’t risk San Francisco to save Seoul.”

Arms Control China

In the News

Apr 8, 2025

Lt Col Edward Brady, USAF, commentary published by War on the Rocks

By Atlantic Council

On April 4, Forward Defense Senior Air Force Fellow Lieutenant Colonel Edward Brady published a commentary on War on the Rocks, entitled, “Greenland’s Military Possibilities for the United States.” The article argues that Greenland is a critical strategic asset for US Arctic defense and global power projection and recommends cost-effective investments in surveillance, infrastructure, and […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Apr 2, 2025

Gen Kevin P. Chilton, USAF (ret.), featured on the Mitchell Institute’s Commander panel

By Atlantic Council

On March 31, Forward Defense distinguished fellow Kevin P. Chilton was featured on the Mitchell Institute’s panel, “Setting the Nuclear Deterrence Record Straight: Commanders’ Perspectives.” On the panel, he joined former US Strategic Command commanders Gen. Robert Kehler, USAF (Ret.), and Adm. Charles A. Richard, USN (Ret.), to discuss the realities of nuclear deterrence today. Additionally, […]

China Defense Industry

In the News

Mar 27, 2025

Soofer featured in Brookings report titled, “An Iron Dome for America?”

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in a Brookings report entitled, “An Iron Dome for America?” The article features insights from Soofer’s recent report, “‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense.” Brookings author Michael E. O’Hanlon argues that Soofer’s proposal offers a more realistic alternative to Trump’s ambitious “Golden Dome” vision, suggesting […]

China Defense Industry

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Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.