The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2025

NATO has a gap in its airborne command and control. Here’s how to close it.

By David Julazadeh

As E-3 AWACS aircraft retire, and with new doubts about and delays with the E-7A aircraft set to replace them, the Alliance must take additional steps bridge the gap.

Europe & Eurasia NATO

New Atlanticist

Aug 26, 2025

Five questions (and expert answers) about where the US-South Korea alliance goes from here

By Atlantic Council experts

The US and South Korean presidents met on Monday in Washington to discuss a range of bilateral issues, from security to shipbuilding.

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran

New Atlanticist

Jun 12, 2025

Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran’s military and nuclear sites. What’s next?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts shed light on Israel’s major attack against Iran targeting its nuclear facilities and its implications for the region.

Conflict Defense Policy

New Atlanticist

Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security

Reports & issue briefs

Report

Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Jan 31, 2024

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on deterrence

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

With North Korea’s rapidly advancing military technology, aggressive nuclear policy changes, and deepening ties with the PRC making deterrence on the Korean Peninsula increasingly more complex, this is how the US and South Korea can shore up cooperative deterrence and boost alliance resilience.

China Defense Policy
Snow leopard in the rain

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jan 17, 2024

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Climate Change & Climate Action Defense Technologies
Image for Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan: Scenarios and considerations for the United States

Report

Nov 30, 2023

Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan: Scenarios and considerations for the United States

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues the US and the PRC would have incentives to use nuclear weapons in a Taiwan war. The US must deter PRC nuclear use.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Nov 22, 2023

The role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan crisis

By Gregory Weaver

Nuclear deterrence would be key in a Taiwan crisis, in part because a PLA amphibious fleet would be vulnerable to a US nuclear strike.

China Conflict

Past events

In the news

In the News

Oct 14, 2025

Kroenig quoted in the Wall Street Journal on New-START Treaty

On October 5, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in an article in the Wall Street Journal. He argues against extending the New START arms control agreement in order to expand the US nuclear arsenal to compete with China.

Arms Control China

In the News

Aug 20, 2025

Kroenig in Foreign Policy urges Trump to play the nuclear card to end the war in Ukraine

By Atlantic Council

On August 18, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, published an article in Foreign Policy titled “To Get Peace in Ukraine, Trump Should Play the Nuclear Card.” He argues that President Trump should ramp up nuclear threats as a negotiating strategy to end Russia’s war in Ukraine instead of increasing […]

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

In the News

Jul 8, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the Washington Post on nuclear nonproliferation

On July 7, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the Washington Post for a recent op-ed he published titled “The Trump doctrine on nuclear nonproliferation is born.” A nuclear disarmament advocate from Back from the Brink wrote a letter to the editor reacting to the op-ed.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 30, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the Hill on nuclear nonproliferation

On June 30, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the Hill for a recent op-ed he published in the Washington Post on his view of the Trump administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy. An expert from a nonpartisan climate policy think tank reacted to the op-ed and Kroenig’s arguments.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 30, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the South China Morning Post on nuclear nonproliferation

On June 30, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the South China Morning Post for his June 24th op-ed in the Washington Post on the Trump administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy, as evidenced by its attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A master’s student from the University of […]

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.