The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Oct 13, 2023

What needs to change about US nuclear weapons strategy?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts break down the 2023 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States report.
China Indo-Pacific
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 3, 2024

The US is building a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile. Congress must make sure it’s built right.

By Robert Soofer

There are forces at play—bureaucratic, budgetary, and programmatic—that could stymie the SLCM-N if US lawmakers do not pay close attention.
Defense Technologies Nuclear Deterrence
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

Strategic Insights Memo

Mar 12, 2025

The hypersonic imperative

By Michael E. White

Hypersonic weapons and counter-hypersonic defenses will be essential for the United States to deter and, if necessary, prevail in a war against one or more great powers. This is why the Department of Defense and Congress must prioritize the accelerated fielding of these capabilities.

China Defense Industry

New Atlanticist

Nov 5, 2024

Nuclear weapons on the battlefield are a growing risk. US and allied militaries should prepare now.

By Brad T. Gericke and Donna Wilt

US military and defense thinkers must overcome two major misconceptions that for too long have shaped US actions regarding nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Oct 28, 2024

How the US can counter Russian and Chinese nuclear threats in space

By Peter L. Hays and Sarah Mineiro

As China and Russia bolster their counterspace capabilities, the United States must modernize its space-based nuclear command.

China Nuclear Deterrence

New Atlanticist

Jul 30, 2024

To deter Russia, NATO must adapt its nuclear sharing program

By Michael John Williams

Russian President Vladimir Putin has time and again played the United States and its European allies, believing that they are too scared of the long shadow cast by nuclear weapons to push back against his threats.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Jul 3, 2024

Don’t cut corners on US nuclear deterrence

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Bipartisan support for modernizing and expanding the US nuclear arsenal will be essential for the United States to deter its adversaries.

Conflict Defense Industry
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Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief May 1, 2023

US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity

By Keir Lieber, Daryl G. Press

Keir Lieber and Daryl Press lay out a vision for the future of US nuclear doctrine and strategy under the condition of nuclear tripolarity.
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Nov 15, 2023

US homeland missile defense: Room for expanded roles

By Robert Soofer and Matthew Costlow

Matthew Costlow & Robert Soofer explore how expanded roles for US homeland missile defense could enhance deterrence with two nuclear peers
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Report Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.
Arms Control China

Assumptions Testing Series

Nov 3, 2021

Assumption #3: US leadership is indispensable to the health of the global order

By Christopher Preble

Experts often assume that US power is essential to global peace and prosperity, but need to question what role the United States can play in the global system among partners and allies.

Human Rights National Security

Report

Nov 2, 2021

Deterring Chinese strategic attack: Grappling with the implications of China’s strategic forces buildup

By Matthew Kroenig

To counter the increasing threat from China’s assertive foreign policy and growing nuclear capabilities, Matthew Kroenig outlines a strategy for Washington and allies to reliably deter Chinese strategic attack.

China Cybersecurity

Issue Brief

Sep 23, 2021

The special role of US nuclear weapons

By Matthew Kroenig

The United States needs to maintain a robust, flexible, and modernized nuclear deterrent. That means that United States needs to continue with nuclear modernization, reject a no first use (NFU) policy, and examine further nuclear capabilities.

China Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Jun 16, 2021

Are dual-capable weapon systems destabilizing? Questioning nuclear-conventional entanglement and inadvertent escalation

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Some fear that nuclear-conventional entanglement–the use of the same weapons or sensors for nuclear and conventional weapons–could lead to nuclear war. Are they right? This issue brief argues that fears of entanglement leading to nuclear war are misplaced and rest on poor logical and empirical foundations.

China Conflict

Issue Brief

Mar 29, 2021

The downsides of downsizing: Why the United States needs four hundred ICBMs

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti

The United States is at a nuclear modernization crossroads. Critics of the land leg of the nuclear triad believe that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force of 300 missiles will be cheaper and more stable than a force of 400. This issue brief shows that 400 ICBMs support the goals of US nuclear deterrence and are affordable.

China Defense Policy
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Past events

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow’s and Beijing’s defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 3:00 pm ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 pm ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
Online Event Wed, July 27, 2022 • 12:00 pm ET

Future Foreign Policy: A new nuclear era?
Arms Control China Nuclear Deterrence Nuclear Nonproliferation
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In the news

In the News

Apr 24, 2025

Soofer and Massa discuss homeland missile defense on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory speaker series

By Atlantic Council

On March 6, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for GlobalSecurity Research featured Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer and Forward Defense deputy director Mark Massa in their ongoing speaker series. In the dialogue, they discuss the future of homeland missile defense, specifically in reference to their co-authored report, “‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Apr 17, 2025

Soofer quoted in Politico article entitled, “Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War”

By Atlantic Council

On April 11, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in a Politico article entitled, “Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War.” In discussing US extended deterrence, Soofer is quoted saying, “What makes the South Koreans nervous is the fear that we wouldn’t risk San Francisco to save Seoul.”

Arms Control China

In the News

Apr 8, 2025

Lt Col Edward Brady, USAF, commentary published by War on the Rocks

By Atlantic Council

On April 4, Forward Defense Senior Air Force Fellow Lieutenant Colonel Edward Brady published a commentary on War on the Rocks, entitled, “Greenland’s Military Possibilities for the United States.” The article argues that Greenland is a critical strategic asset for US Arctic defense and global power projection and recommends cost-effective investments in surveillance, infrastructure, and […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Apr 2, 2025

Gen Kevin P. Chilton, USAF (ret.), featured on the Mitchell Institute’s Commander panel

By Atlantic Council

On March 31, Forward Defense distinguished fellow Kevin P. Chilton was featured on the Mitchell Institute’s panel, “Setting the Nuclear Deterrence Record Straight: Commanders’ Perspectives.” On the panel, he joined former US Strategic Command commanders Gen. Robert Kehler, USAF (Ret.), and Adm. Charles A. Richard, USN (Ret.), to discuss the realities of nuclear deterrence today. Additionally, […]

China Defense Industry

In the News

Mar 27, 2025

Soofer featured in Brookings report titled, “An Iron Dome for America?”

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in a Brookings report entitled, “An Iron Dome for America?” The article features insights from Soofer’s recent report, “‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense.” Brookings author Michael E. O’Hanlon argues that Soofer’s proposal offers a more realistic alternative to Trump’s ambitious “Golden Dome” vision, suggesting […]

China Defense Industry
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Defense Policy Nuclear Deterrence

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.

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