The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2025

NATO has a gap in its airborne command and control. Here’s how to close it.

By David Julazadeh

As E-3 AWACS aircraft retire, and with new doubts about and delays with the E-7A aircraft set to replace them, the Alliance must take additional steps bridge the gap.

Europe & Eurasia NATO

New Atlanticist

Aug 26, 2025

Five questions (and expert answers) about where the US-South Korea alliance goes from here

By Atlantic Council experts

The US and South Korean presidents met on Monday in Washington to discuss a range of bilateral issues, from security to shipbuilding.

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran

New Atlanticist

Jun 12, 2025

Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran’s military and nuclear sites. What’s next?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts shed light on Israel’s major attack against Iran targeting its nuclear facilities and its implications for the region.

Conflict Defense Policy

New Atlanticist

Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security

Reports & issue briefs

Assumptions Testing Series

Nov 3, 2021

Assumption #3: US leadership is indispensable to the health of the global order

By Christopher Preble

Experts often assume that US power is essential to global peace and prosperity, but need to question what role the United States can play in the global system among partners and allies.

Human Rights National Security

Report

Nov 2, 2021

Deterring Chinese strategic attack: Grappling with the implications of China’s strategic forces buildup

By Matthew Kroenig

To counter the increasing threat from China’s assertive foreign policy and growing nuclear capabilities, Matthew Kroenig outlines a strategy for Washington and allies to reliably deter Chinese strategic attack.

China Cybersecurity

Issue Brief

Sep 23, 2021

The special role of US nuclear weapons

By Matthew Kroenig

The United States needs to maintain a robust, flexible, and modernized nuclear deterrent. That means that United States needs to continue with nuclear modernization, reject a no first use (NFU) policy, and examine further nuclear capabilities.

China Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Jun 16, 2021

Are dual-capable weapon systems destabilizing? Questioning nuclear-conventional entanglement and inadvertent escalation

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Some fear that nuclear-conventional entanglement–the use of the same weapons or sensors for nuclear and conventional weapons–could lead to nuclear war. Are they right? This issue brief argues that fears of entanglement leading to nuclear war are misplaced and rest on poor logical and empirical foundations.

China Conflict

Issue Brief

Mar 29, 2021

The downsides of downsizing: Why the United States needs four hundred ICBMs

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti

The United States is at a nuclear modernization crossroads. Critics of the land leg of the nuclear triad believe that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force of 300 missiles will be cheaper and more stable than a force of 400. This issue brief shows that 400 ICBMs support the goals of US nuclear deterrence and are affordable.

China Defense Policy

Past events

In the news

In the News

Oct 14, 2025

Kroenig quoted in the Wall Street Journal on New-START Treaty

On October 5, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in an article in the Wall Street Journal. He argues against extending the New START arms control agreement in order to expand the US nuclear arsenal to compete with China.

Arms Control China

In the News

Aug 20, 2025

Kroenig in Foreign Policy urges Trump to play the nuclear card to end the war in Ukraine

By Atlantic Council

On August 18, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, published an article in Foreign Policy titled “To Get Peace in Ukraine, Trump Should Play the Nuclear Card.” He argues that President Trump should ramp up nuclear threats as a negotiating strategy to end Russia’s war in Ukraine instead of increasing […]

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

In the News

Jul 8, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the Washington Post on nuclear nonproliferation

On July 7, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the Washington Post for a recent op-ed he published titled “The Trump doctrine on nuclear nonproliferation is born.” A nuclear disarmament advocate from Back from the Brink wrote a letter to the editor reacting to the op-ed.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 30, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the Hill on nuclear nonproliferation

On June 30, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the Hill for a recent op-ed he published in the Washington Post on his view of the Trump administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy. An expert from a nonpartisan climate policy think tank reacted to the op-ed and Kroenig’s arguments.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 30, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the South China Morning Post on nuclear nonproliferation

On June 30, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the South China Morning Post for his June 24th op-ed in the Washington Post on the Trump administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy, as evidenced by its attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A master’s student from the University of […]

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.