Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Report

Sep 8, 2026

Preparing for and countering limited nuclear attacks in East Asia: Guardian Tiger III

By Markus Garlauskas with John Park and Kyoko Imai. Contributors: Andrew Brown and Jonathan Corrado

The risk of North Korea launching a limited nuclear attack will likely increase over the coming decade. The United States and its allies are not preparing adequately to deter and prevail in the face of such nuclear strikes.

Indo-Pacific Korea

Issue Brief

Jun 18, 2026

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

By Christopher Lee, Ben Blane, and Markus Garlauskas

To maximize its deterrent and warfighting effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States must reform its military command-and-control structure in Northeast Asia.

Arms Control East Asia

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome 

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

By Henry “Trey” Obering

The United States should pursue a comprehensive missile defense system to protect the homeland from advanced threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. Political will from the Trump administration and advances in technology make the idea of the long-discussed "dome" over the United States more feasible now than ever.

Missile Defense Security & Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Commentary & quick analysis

Past events

In the news

In the News

Apr 12, 2024

Konaev cited in the Washington Post about drone swarms escalating global conflict

On April 12, Forward Defense Nonresident Senior Fellow Margarita Konaev was quoted in a Washington Post article titled “US-China competition to field military drone swarms could fuel global arms race,” about the risks of increasing the deployment of drone swarms.

Arms Control China

In the News

Apr 3, 2024

Soofer quoted in Newsweek article about the US nuclear arsenal

By Atlantic Council

Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in Newsweek about the US nuclear arsenal.

Nuclear Deterrence United States and Canada

In the News

Mar 20, 2024

Kroenig spoke on the Congressional Commission on US Strategic Posture at ExchangeMonitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit

By Atlantic Council

Matthew Kroenig spoke at the ExchangeMonitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit as a member of the Congressional Commission on U.S. Strategic Posture.

China Iran

In the News

Mar 18, 2024

Massa in iNews on Russian threats of nuclear weapons use

By Atlantic Council

On February 29, Mark Massa was quoted in iNews and spoke about Russia's history of nuclear threats and what the most recent threats from Russia mean for the war in Ukraine and for NATO.

NATO Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Mar 18, 2024

Massa in Weekendavisen on possible Russian nuclear weapon in space

By Atlantic Council

On February 20, Mark Massa was interviewed in Weekendavisen to discuss recent reports of a potential Russian nuclear weapon in space.

Nuclear Deterrence Russia

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.