Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Report

Sep 8, 2026

Preparing for and countering limited nuclear attacks in East Asia: Guardian Tiger III

By Markus Garlauskas with John Park and Kyoko Imai. Contributors: Andrew Brown and Jonathan Corrado

The risk of North Korea launching a limited nuclear attack will likely increase over the coming decade. The United States and its allies are not preparing adequately to deter and prevail in the face of such nuclear strikes.

Indo-Pacific Korea

Issue Brief

Jun 18, 2026

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

By Christopher Lee, Ben Blane, and Markus Garlauskas

To maximize its deterrent and warfighting effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States must reform its military command-and-control structure in Northeast Asia.

Arms Control East Asia

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome 

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

By Henry “Trey” Obering

The United States should pursue a comprehensive missile defense system to protect the homeland from advanced threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. Political will from the Trump administration and advances in technology make the idea of the long-discussed "dome" over the United States more feasible now than ever.

Missile Defense Security & Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Commentary & quick analysis

Past events

In the news

In the News

Sep 19, 2023

Cynkin interviewed by Yonhap News on intelligence approaches to Russia-North Korea partnership

On September 17, IPSI nonresident senior fellow Thomas Cynkin was quoted in Yonhap News. Cynkin suggested that the United States may benefit from declassifying and disclosing more information related to trade activity between North Korea and Russia, as it did with intelligence on Russian military action prior to the invasion of Ukraine. He explained that […]

Arms Control Indo-Pacific

In the News

Sep 19, 2023

Cynkin appears on VOA “Washington Talk” weekly program

On September 16, IPSI nonresident senior fellow Thomas Cynkin appeared on VOA Korea’s weekly program, “Washington Talk,” regarding the recent meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He described the North Korean-Russian partnership as an “unholy alliance” and a “marriage of convenience,” particularly as it pertains to nuclear issues, […]

Arms Control Indo-Pacific

In the News

Sep 15, 2023

Garlauskas appears as a guest on Brussels Sprouts

On September 15, Markus Garlauskas spoke on an episode of Brussels Sprouts, a transatlantic security-focused podcast. In this episode, titled “The New Authoritarian Axis: Russian Relations with North Korea and Iran,” Garlauskas discussed the recent Putin-Kim summit and the concerning implications of this developing relationship for containing North Korea’s WMD programs. He also addressed the […]

China Indo-Pacific

In the News

Sep 14, 2023

Cynkin interviewed by VOA on recent Putin-Kim summit

On September 12, IPSI nonresident senior fellow Thomas Cynkin was quoted in VOA Korea for his insights on the recent Putin-Kim summit. He was also featured in broadcasts by VOA Korea on September 12 and VOA Russia on September 13, explaining that “this meeting is a reaction to the isolation that the two countries, Russia […]

Indo-Pacific International Norms

In the News

Sep 13, 2023

Garlauskas quoted in War on the Rocks

On September 12, Markus Garlauskas’ analysis was referenced in War on the Rocks regarding his recently published report on simultaneous conflicts and limited nuclear attacks. In particular, the article cited one of the report’s key assertions: that “the likelihood of a two-front conflict is … worth serious consideration and accommodation.”

China Crisis Management

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.