Research & Reports

A decade from now, the United States will face even tougher challenges in the Indo-Pacific than it does today. With this in mind, the Atlantic Council’s Guardian Tiger tabletop exercise series is preparing mid-level government and military leaders to address such threats.

Economic security has emerged as a national security priority in Tokyo and Washington as both confront challenges posed by China’s civil-military fusion and economic coercion. The alignment of Tokyo and Washington on strategic views of China and the convergence of their economic security priorities has created a new era of alliance cooperation on these issues.

This next generation agenda proposes policy recommendations designed to improve security cooperation among the United States, South Korea, and European NATO countries in the context of current global security threats, diverging national security perspectives, and imminent leadership changes.

Resilience is a nation’s ability to understand, address, respond to, and recover from any type of national security risk. Given the scale of risk Taiwan faces from mainland China, domestic resilience should be front and center in Taiwan’s national security strategy, encompassing areas such as cybersecurity, energy security, and defense resilience.

Production diplomacy provides opportunities to protect supply chains, strengthen alliances and partnerships, enhance deterrence, and build defense readiness, though it is not without risks and challenges.

As the Pacific Islands’ relevance grows, there’s an influx of diplomatic attention and development assistance as external powers seek to curry favor with the sixteen countries. Australia, India, Japan, and the United States (the Quad) seeks to bolster regional engagement to address key regional issues including climate, connectivity, economic development, and maritime security.

With North Korea’s rapidly advancing military technology, aggressive nuclear policy changes, and deepening ties with the PRC making deterrence on the Korean Peninsula increasingly more complex, this is how the US and South Korea can shore up cooperative deterrence and boost alliance resilience.

Washington and Seoul have drawn closer together in recent years, but concerns remain about what role the alliance would play in a US-China military conflict. The US and South Korea should take these steps to address this sensitive question.

Economic interdependence of South Korea, United States, and other Indo-Pacific countries with China is enabling Beijing to pose threats to national security through economic coercion. To reduce these risks, Seoul and Washington should align strategies in advanced technologies, secure supply chains through trilateral cooperation with Japan, and reinforce the rules-based system in the Indo-Pacific.

A deep dive into trade data reveals how materials imported from China are vital for Russia’s ability to sustain its continued stubborn efforts to hold onto Ukrainian territory.

Conventional wisdom in the United States holds that deterrence in Korea is strong, but this widespread confidence is based on a backward look at long-standing assumptions that are no longer tenable, along with rapidly shifting politico-military conditions. This report explains the urgent actions required to get ahead of these changes and maintain effective deterrence.

This report highlights two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security: 1) Horizontal escalation of a conflict with China or North Korea into simultaneous conflict; 2) Vertical escalation to a limited nuclear attack by either or both adversaries to avoid conceding.

This paper examines the historical record of cognitive biases, focusing on the US intelligence community’s failure to forecast PRC intervention in the Korean War, despite collecting information and evidence indicative of that outcome.

A close look at trade data shows that Beijing is already providing critical support for Moscow’s war aims. Policymakers should not get hung up on the “lethal aid” red line.

Trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan, and South Korea has proved challenging over the years, owing largely to historical tensions. As a result, this project has sought perspectives from next-generation leaders of the three countries to define areas where targeted, flexible, and informal cooperative arrangements can provide clear mutual benefit to all.

Marek Jestrab considers a naval blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China and advances recommendations for the United States, Taiwan, and likeminded nations to resist and respond to a blockade.

Markus Garlauskas suggests a strategy to counter North Korean nuclear weapons by impeding the growth of its arsenal, investing to stay ahead of new nuclear threats, and adjusting operations on the Korean Peninsula.