Europe & Eurasia

Dispatch from Central Asia: Dynamism amid uncertainty in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

By Andrew D’Anieri

As Central Asia’s geopolitical importance grows, there are significant opportunities for greater US diplomatic and economic engagement with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Vladimir Putin is trapped in a war he cannot win but dare not end

By Peter Dickinson

As the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale Ukraine invasion approaches, Vladimir Putin finds himself trapped in a war he cannot win but dare not end for fear of entering Russian history as the man who lost Ukraine, writes Peter Dickinson.

Ukraine says lifting football ban would risk legitimizing Russia’s invasion

By Mark Temnycky

Ukraine’s Sports Minister Matvii Bidnyi has slammed calls for Russia’s return to international football and warned that any attempt to reinstate the Russians would risk legitimizing the country’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, writes Mark Temnycky.

How Europe can shape—not fear—the US ‘hydrocarbon-state’

By Michał Kurtyka and Mateusz Kędzierski

The emergence of the United States as a hydrocarbon-state that combines resource abundance with geopolitical power represents an opportunity for Europe.

Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.

Despite US exemptions, the show goes on for a global minimum corporate tax

By Jeff Goldstein

The United States may have carved out protections for its multinationals, but the global minimum tax continues to move forward. With more than sixty-five countries implementing the OECD framework, policymakers are betting imperfect progress will prevent a relapse into corporate tax competition.

Dispatch from Munich: Present at the destruction or the creation?

By Frederick Kempe

This year’s Munich Security Conference presents the transatlantic Alliance with two very different paths ahead.

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.