South Asia

Afghanistan Spins Out of Control, U.S. Fiddles

By Frederick Kempe

NATO is winning most battles in Afghanistan, but the international community is losing the war.That has consequences far beyond Afghanistan if the U.S., Europe and its friends don’t change course fast. The dangers include deepening of regional instability that engulfs nuclear- tipped Pakistan, spreading global terrorism and the declining relevance of the North Atlantic Treaty […]

Saving Afghanistan: An Appeal and Plan for Urgent Action

Make no mistake, the international community is not winning in Afghanistan. Unless this reality is understood and action is taken promptly, the future of Afghanistan is bleak, with regional and global impact. The purpose of this paper is to sound the alarm and to propose specific actions that must be taken now if Afghanistan is […]

Bhutto Killing Breeds a Failing Nuclear State

By Frederick Kempe

Two months ago I suggested that, amid the Bush administration’s focus on Iraq’s present dangers and Iran’s future perils, Pakistan was most likely to produce a so- called black-swan event.

Pakistan Gets My Vote for a Black Swan Event

By Frederick Kempe

Washington is obsessed with the war in Iraq, the danger of Turkish troops clashing with Kurdish militants and President George W. Bush’s possible showdown with Iran over its nuclear weapons ambitions.