Featured analysis

Considering Brexit

Econographics May 29, 2025

After partial relief, what’s next for Syria sanctions?

By Alex Zerden

Syria remains a high-risk jurisdiction due to years of conflict, endemic corruption, state institution collapse, narcotrafficking of captagon, insufficient anti-money laundering efforts, and inadequate financing of terrorism controls.
Economic Sanctions Economy & Business
Considering Brexit

Econographics May 27, 2025

Dispatch from London: Engaging Trump without alienating the rest

By Josh Lipsky, Charles Lichfield

The GeoEconomics team traveled across the pond for a series of meetings and events to determine if the recent US-UK trade deal could be a template for other countries seeking accords with the United States.
Economy & Business International Markets
Considering Brexit

Sinographs Jun 2, 2025

Hong Kong highlights China’s policy of decoupling from US financial markets

By Jeremy Mark

The political benefits of an international financial center with Chinese characteristics will outweigh the pain that decoupling inflicts on China’s private sector.
China Economy & Business

COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Econographics deep dives

Special sections that go inside the Chinese economy, the evolution of sanctions, and the future of money.

 

Sinographs

In-depth analysis of economic and financial trends in the Chinese economy.

Fintech frontlines

Research and analysis on the intersection of technology and policy developments in finance.

Global sanctions dashboard

Monthly analysis of global sanctions regimes—highlighting new listings, delistings, and the motivations behind these changes.

Latest analysis

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

By Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

By Ole Moehr

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

China Economic Sanctions
Load More

Content

Bremain vs Brexit

Nov 18, 2015

Considering Brexit

By Nico Catano

On November 10th, Downing Street released David Cameron's long awaited letter to European Council President Donald Tusk on Great Britain's envisioned reforms to the European Union (EU). With a portion of the ruling Conservative party desiring an EU exit, as well as the rising prominence of the UK Independence Party, unity should not be taken for granted.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Nov 12, 2015

EU Economy: Still Work to be Done

By Nico Catano

The road to recovery in Europe remains a work in progress, as European Central Bank (ECB) leader Mario Draghi faces legacies of the 2008 recession. One notable challenge remaining for the European economy is Non-Performing Loans (NPLs).

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Nov 6, 2015

The Steady Rise of Europe’s Fringe

By Nico Catano

The past five years have forced the European Union to face significant challenges both internally and externally — from the recession to the ongoing migrant crisis.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Oct 29, 2015

The Old World and the New Economy

By Global Business and Economics

One of the most significant challenges currently facing European leaders is how to shepherd their economies, particularly their businesses, into the modern era. In the United States, massive tech giants rapidly blossom from small startups, significantly impacting the economy over the past decade.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Oct 21, 2015

TTIP in Europe

By Global Business and Economics

On October 10th, hundreds of thousands of concerned German citizens marched in Berlin to protest the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). TTIP's critics argue it benefits corporations at the expense of ordinary citizens, while its proponents argue it provides significant economic growth.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Oct 13, 2015

Breaking Down Walls: How Will American Agricultural Producers Fare Under TPP?

By Global Business and Economics

On October 5th, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations were concluded in Atlanta. The deal faced criticism from some on a lack of transparency, but details are now beginning to emerge on the settlement. Even with TPP's lack of transparency, there were clear tension points between negotiators on topics such as biologics, dairy products, and rules of origin for the automaking industry. This week's Econographic looks specifically at one of the potential winners of the trade deal, the American agricultural sector.

Economy & Business Indo-Pacific

EconoGraphics

Oct 6, 2015

How Can We Bridge Automaking Standards for Growth?

By Global Business and Economics

The recent Volkswagen scandal has refocused consumers on automaking standards and CO2 emissions. These differences have also been one of the sticking points in TTIP negotiations. Both the American and European automaking sectors have rigorous standards, and as might be expected hold similar regulations.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Sep 29, 2015

How Does The Most Recent Greek Bailout Deal Compare With The Past Two Agreements?

By Global Business and Economics

The latest Memorandum of Understanding between the EU Institutions and the Greek Government passed in August, leaves Tsipras only one additional month to implement eighty-five initiatives. These reforms cover a diverse range of topics, from consolidating taxation policies to health and education reform.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Sep 22, 2015

Migrant Flows and the Future of Europe

By Global Business and Economics

As Europe confronts the migrant crisis, much of the current coverage remains fixed on short run trends, but in order to have a comprehensive perspective it is necessary to project these trends into the future. In spite of commonly held concerns of migrants' effect on European identity, many of these nations' birthrates and outflows of migrants will actually be higher than their intake of migrants. Negative flows of migrants could further weaken pension plans, as aging European populations struggle to balance social welfare models with demographic realities.

Afghanistan Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 15, 2015

Has the Renminbi Arrived as an International Currency?

By Global Business and Economics

As China slowly transitions from an investment and export based economy to a consumer based economy, the Chinese must also liberalize both their monetary affairs and the management of their currency. By increasing the wealth of Chinese consumers via their currency's value, domestic demand will supplant the role of exports. For this process to be completed, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, must assume its place in the package of globally dominant currencies.

China Economy & Business
Load More