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New Atlanticist

Jun 18, 2020

Will Ghani’s plan for peace in Afghanistan work?

By South Asia Center

“What has been done so far is good enough, but what matters now is to address the underlying challenges the process faces ahead," Javid Ahmad says. "This includes the continuing concerns regarding the lack of a meaningful intra-Taliban consensus to negotiate peace, one likely to upset the upcoming process should the Taliban make unreasonable demands to please their hardliners."

Afghanistan Conflict

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2020

China and India just had their worst clash in forty-five years. What do we know?

By Shubha Kamala Prasad

On June 15, India and China faced off in a clash along the Line of Actual Control (LAC or the de-facto border in the Ladakh region), resulting in the death of at least twenty Indians and an unknown number of casualties on the Chinese side. This has been the first set of fatalities along the Sino-Indian border since the 1975 Tulung La ambush in present-day Arunachal Pradesh, the easternmost state of India, when four Indian soldiers died. While shots were apparently not fired in this recent exchange, the hand-to-hand combat was deadly. What triggered the worst clash in forty-five years? And how will India respond?

China Conflict

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2020

Here’s how a Kosovo-Serbia White House summit could produce progress

By Damir Marusic

We don’t really know what the goal of the talks is. Most assume that anything short of a final status deal would be a failure, but that could be shortsighted: a smaller win may be possible, and could be significant.

Politics & Diplomacy The Balkans

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2020

Why a Kosovo-Serbia White House deal could be dangerous

By Molly Montgomery

While the Trump administration and the EU have both flirted with the idea of territorial exchanges at times over the past three years, experts on both sides of the Atlantic fear the precedent such an agreement would set in a region where nationalists regularly demand secession or union with ethnic brethren. Even if Pandora’s box could be closed, the implementation of such an agreement would almost certainly result in de facto ethnic cleansing, heightened tensions, and the potential for renewed violence.

Politics & Diplomacy The Balkans

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2020

Don’t count on a White House Kosovo-Serbia breakthrough

By Dimitar Bechev

Setting expectations high would be ill-advised. For one, Vučić has no incentive to rush with recognizing Kosovo. Prishtina, meanwhile, will view the removal of tariffs on Serbia as having done its share, and will seek concessions. Europeans and Americans should be working side by side, pooling their leverage to move forward normalization. But sadly, this is less and less the case recently.

Politics & Diplomacy The Balkans

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2020

The EU is a more powerful partner on China than the US might think

By Julia Friedlander

Across a wide range of disciplines, the EU’s technocratic institutions repeatedly serve a force-multiplier for US priorities and can help forge the common transatlantic policies necessary to protect US and EU economic and security interests in the face of a more assertive China.

China Economy & Business

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2020

Disproving the discourse of danger: Kazakhstan at thirty

By Stephen Blank

Central Asian independence in the 1990s spawned enormous anxiety among observers who foresaw cascading threats of Islamic terrorism, internecine war, ethnic conflicts within or between these states, or violence between Russian settlers and their new governments. Thirty years on, Kazakhstan has steered past many of these potential flashpoints and avoided the "discourse of danger."

Central Asia Coronavirus

New Atlanticist

Jun 16, 2020

GNA should resist Egypt’s ceasefire proposal for Libya

By David Mack

The GNA has momentum on the ground, but they risk losing the chance to restore a unified Libya if they acquiesce to an Egyptian proposal for what amounts to a ceasefire in place, backed by Russia. This could lead eventually to a dismembered Libya, with the GNA without effective control over its most vital national resources. Instead, the GNA can insist on continuing its relationship with a broad international coalition and talks among Libyans convened under auspices of a United Nations mediator.

Conflict North Africa

New Atlanticist

Jun 16, 2020

Managing expectations for WTO reform

By Marc L. Busch

The search for a new leader of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is in full swing. Soon, attention will turn to reforming the institution. Expectations need to be managed now.

International Organizations Trade and tariffs

New Atlanticist

Jun 16, 2020

How the coronavirus has deepened the US-China ideological rift

By Chang-Ching Tu

Coronavirus has accelerated changing perceptions in Washington and Beijing and deepened the ideological confrontation between the two different political systems symbolizing "democracy" and "centralization."

China Coronavirus