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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2015

The IMF’s Very Tough Love for Ukraine

By
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

As Kyiv Slashes Spending, the Economy’s Real Shrinkage This Year May Be 10, Not 6, Percent The International Monetary Fund last month threw what looks like a much-improved financial lifeline to Ukraine—and indeed, the new loan program is welcome help for a desperate need. But a check on the math of one prominent IMF realist […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 31, 2015

In Ukraine, the Real Fight is for Europe

By
Stephen Blank

Putin’s War is Not Over Donbas, but a New Russian Empire According to Vladimir Putin, Crimea and Ukraine are where the spiritual sources of Russia’s nationhood lie. And he “always saw the Russians and Ukrainians as a single people. I still think this way now.” People observing the crisis triggered by Putin’s aggression against Ukraine […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 31, 2015

Russia Plans Spring Offensive in Ukraine, Warns Ex-NATO Chief Wesley Clark

By
Ashish Kumar Sen

Russian-backed separatists are planning a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine that could come within a matter of months, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, warned March 30. “What is happening now is preparations for a renewed offensive from the east,” and this could take place following Orthodox Easter, on April 12, […]


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UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Less-Stringent Minsk II Terms Paved the Way for Renewed Sanctions

By
John E. Herbst

On March 19, delegates at the European Union Summit in Brussels agreed to extend tough sanctions against Moscow—until year’s end if necessary—to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to implement the Minsk II ceasefire. Under terms of that deal, signed on February 12, EU sanctions won’t be lifted until Ukraine takes back full control of its […]


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UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Putin’s War Has Consolidated Ukraine

By
Alexander Motyl

Viewed historically, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is the product of four deeper causes and one trigger. First, the Soviet empire’s collapse in 1991 propelled its successor state, Russia, to seek reimperialization for structural and ideological reasons. Second, the emergence of a “fascistoid” (or almost fully fascist) regime made imperial revival a central feature of Vladimir […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Ukraine’s Powerful Billionaire Governor Quits After Clash With Kyiv

By
New Atlanticist

Dnipropetrovsk’s Kolomoyskyi: Patriotic, Corrupt, Threatening—Or All Three? Ukrainian billionaire politician Ihor Kolomoyskyi resigned today as governor of Ukraine’s strategically critical Dnipropetrovsk province after clashing with the central government and parliament over control of two state-owned oil-sector companies. In that clash, Kolomoyskyi last week sent troops of an armed militia he controls to occupy the Kyiv […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 18, 2015

EU Will Kick the Can Down the Road on Russia Sanctions

By
Ashish Kumar Sen

Europeans do not want to undermine Minsk II, says analyst European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on March 19 are unlikely to either ramp up or lift sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine, says Edward W. Walker, a professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley. “It’s very likely that […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 18, 2015

Sanctions Are Still the Answer

By
John E. Herbst

Last week, UkraineAlert linked to an interesting piece by Clifford Gaddy criticizing the West’s sanctions on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. His point is this: Putin believes that Russia is “under assault” by the West and cannot allow Ukraine “to be brought fully into the sphere of influence of its enemy.” Therefore, the West […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 12, 2015

Did Kharkiv Just Become Russia’s Next Target in Ukraine War?

By
New Atlanticist

A Criminal Case Could Turn the City’s Political Strongman Back into a Kremlin Ally  In Russia’s campaign to re-assert control over Ukraine, a logical target for its “hybrid war” is Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and a center of its Russian-speaking population. And indeed, Russia has been working steadily to destabilize Kharkiv (just 25 miles from […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Mar 11, 2015

Ukraine’s Shrinking Hryvnia: How Alarming Is It?

By
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Kyiv Has Begun the Hard Steps of Reform; IMF and Allies Must Now Deliver Quickly The dramatic plunge last month in the value of the hryvnia, Ukraine’s currency, sparked speculation about an immediate, national economic collapse. Despite the drama—the hryvnia lost more than half of its value against the dollar in February, hitting a record […]


Ukraine

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UkraineAlert

Sep 12, 2017

North Korean Missile Engines: Not from Ukraine

By Mariana Budjeryn and Andrew Zhalko-Tytarenko

A new report points to Ukraine as a possible source of liquid propellant engines (LPE) powering intercontinental-range missiles successfully ground-tested by North Korea last year and flight-tested this year. As the world grapples with the fait accompli of North Korean nuclear and missile capability, the path Pyongyang took to acquire it is of considerable interest, […]

Korea Russia

UkraineAlert

Sep 12, 2017

Ukrainians’ Stock Soars in Central Europe as Employers Vie for Labor

By James Brooke

One of this summer’s big lessons is that the image of Ukrainians has turned around in the region. As Central European governments fight to block EU-mandated quotas of asylum seekers from Syria and Iraq, Ukraine has emerged as the region’s source of desirable guest workers. Czech, Slovak, Hungarian, and Estonian governments have set up recruiting […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 7, 2017

Scarred: How Famine Shaped Modern Ukraine and Russia

By Diane Francis

In the 1930s, Joseph Stalin committed crimes against humanity by purposely starving to death more than four million Ukrainians for resisting his Five-Year Plan to collectivize agriculture. Millions more fled and in 1937, Stalin executed or imprisoned hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian leaders and influencers. For three more generations, Russia kept Stalin’s genocide hidden until […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 7, 2017

Pyongyang’s Ambitions Have Nothing to Do with Kyiv and Everything to Do with Moscow

By Lada Roslycky

The North Korean leadership, headed by 33-year-old Kim Jong-un, is openly threatening its neighbors, as well as the United States, with missile strikes. How has this little country, most of whose citizens live in poverty, managed to cause such a global security issue? A recent New York Times article accused Ukraine of illegally supplying rocket […]

Korea Russia

UkraineAlert

Sep 7, 2017

Will Ukraine’s Parliament Accomplish Anything This Fall?

By Olena Prokopenko and Christina Parandii

On September 5, a new political season began in Ukraine. Parliamentary speaker Andriy Parubiy has already branded parliament’s new plenary session “the autumn of reforms” by promising to deliver results on some of the most hot-button issues, including healthcare, pension, education, and judicial reforms. Parliament is behind and needs to kick things into high gear; […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 5, 2017

Should the US Arm Ukraine? For the Answer, Look to the Soviet-Afghan War

By Johnny Herbst

In February 2014, Russia seized and annexed Crimea; a few weeks later, Moscow launched its no-longer-covert hybrid war against Ukraine in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. It is now 2017 and the situation remains relatively unchanged. The conflict in the east is at a standstill, no side has a clear advantage, and it appears that […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 5, 2017

Parliament Is the Problem in Ukraine

By Peter Dickinson

September marks the beginning of season 48 of “Game of Chairs,” otherwise known as the Ukrainian parliament. As the country’s MPs return for the autumn parliamentary session, few will be tuning in. While the palace intrigues and Machiavellian plot twists of HBO’s “Game of Thrones” makes for compulsive viewing, the ideological ambiguity and backroom dealing […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 4, 2017

How to Finish the Revolution in Ukraine

By Olena Sotnyk

More than three years after the Euromaidan, Ukraine still hasn’t successfully prosecuted any high-level crooks, and we’ve got plenty here. At Stanford University’s Draper Hills Summer Fellowship this summer, we examined how to catch a “big fish” and looked at a case study in Indonesia, where the country’s anticorruption commission had just begun. Despite being […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Aug 30, 2017

Ukraine Needs Arms, Not Cheap Arguments

By John E. Herbst

The United States is seriously considering giving Ukraine lethal defensive weapons, and this is the right move. Over the last month, Michael Brendan Dougherty and I have debated this issue here and here. In his latest response, Dougherty tries to rack up a quick win. He claims that experts issued a report arguing for arming Ukraine […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Aug 30, 2017

Things Are Looking Up in Ukraine

By Katie LaRoque

For the first time since Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity, the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) polls show a slight improvement in the country. It’s finally possible to be cautiously optimistic about Ukraine. Here are the four key takeaways from IRI’s latest national public opinion survey.

Ukraine