Issue briefs and reports

China Pathfinder update: Lack of policy solutions in second half of 2023 belies official data

By GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group

Through the second half of 2023, the gap between China’s impressive official data and visibly underwhelming consumer demand, unresolved local government debt problems and an unprecedented drop in foreign direct investment was stark.

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.

Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future

By Casey Michel

A new Atlantic Council report explores five paths that Russia future might take in its future. What forces will shape Russia’s future?

Decarbonizing the aluminum market: Challenges and opportunities

By Nitya Aggarwal, Matthew Piotrowski, and George Frampton

This report explores the pathways to decarbonize aluminum production through the increased use of recycled scrap metal, supplying more low-carbon energy to production facilities, and increasing efficiency through new technologies.

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on deterrence

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

With North Korea’s rapidly advancing military technology, aggressive nuclear policy changes, and deepening ties with the PRC making deterrence on the Korean Peninsula increasingly more complex, this is how the US and South Korea can shore up cooperative deterrence and boost alliance resilience.

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on reassurance and coordination for a China conflict

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

Washington and Seoul have drawn closer together in recent years, but concerns remain about what role the alliance would play in a US-China military conflict. The US and South Korea should take these steps to address this sensitive question.

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on countering Beijing’s economic coercion

By Kyoko Imai, Markus Garlauskas

Economic interdependence of South Korea, United States, and other Indo-Pacific countries with China is enabling Beijing to pose threats to national security through economic coercion. To reduce these risks, Seoul and Washington should align strategies in advanced technologies, secure supply chains through trilateral cooperation with Japan, and reinforce the rules-based system in the Indo-Pacific.

How Europe can escape its structural energy weakness amid great power competition

By Ben Judah, Tim Sahay, Shahin Vallée, and Francis Shin

This report argues that the EU will need to engage in deep structural and political reforms to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Global Foresight 2024

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2024. Our foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2024 and beyond. And we share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.