Content

Issue Brief

Aug 16, 2023

Biases blind us to the risk of Chinese military intervention in Korea

By Jonathan Corrado

This paper examines the historical record of cognitive biases, focusing on the US intelligence community’s failure to forecast PRC intervention in the Korean War, despite collecting information and evidence indicative of that outcome.

Arms Control China

In the News

Aug 5, 2023

Soofer on Voice of America Korea discussing US-Korea-Japan security cooperation

By Atlantic Council

Rob Soofer speaks on trilateral security cooperation between US, Korea, and Japan to deter North Korea and China

Indo-Pacific Japan

New Atlanticist

Aug 3, 2023

Congress should fund the nuclear sea-launched cruise missile

By Robert Soofer and Walter B. Slocombe

The deployment of SLCM-Ns would send a clear message to adversary and ally alike that the United States maintains the resolve and capabilities to respond to any foe’s nuclear use.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Jul 19, 2023

Experts react: South Korea embarks on a new nuclear era. How will it play out?

By Atlantic Council experts

US and South Korean officials just met in Seoul for the inaugural meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group, a new bilateral platform to coordinate deterrence against a North Korean nuclear attack.

Crisis Management East Asia

In the News

Jul 16, 2023

Rich Outzen joins i24News to discuss the escalation in the Gulf

Maritime Security Middle East

New Atlanticist

Jul 11, 2023

Europe needs a nuclear deterrent of its own

By Jacques Lanxade, Denis MacShane, Margarita Mathiopoulos, and Klaus Naumann

Only a trilateral British, French, and German nuclear umbrella, combined with a US umbrella, all under the command and control of NATO, will be a credible deterrent for Russia.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Jun 28, 2023

Reading between the lines of the new North Korea intelligence estimate

By Markus Garlauskas

The US intelligence community has just released its National Intelligence Estimate on North Korea, a watershed analysis. But more is worth adding to the discussion.

China Intelligence

UkraineAlert

Jun 21, 2023

Putin’s nuclear threats will escalate as Ukraine’s counteroffensive unfolds

By Diane Francis

As Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive gets underway, there are fears that Russia's deteriorating military predicament could lead to an escalation in Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats, writes Diane Francis.

Conflict Disinformation

Report

Jun 15, 2023

US-China lessons from Ukraine: Fueling more dangerous Taiwan tensions

By John K. Culver, Sarah Kirchberger

The lessons that Washington and Beijing appear to be learning from Russia's war against Ukraine could set the stage for a crisis over Taiwan in the next few years.

China Defense Industry

New Atlanticist

Jun 14, 2023

Before embarking on arms control talks, Biden needs a nuclear deal with Congress

By Robert Soofer

The White House and Congress disagree over the type and number of nuclear weapons needed to deter Russia, China, North Korea, and potentially Iran.

Arms Control China

Experts