Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

Obama’s All-Stars

By James Joyner

Barack Obama’s cabinet choices have been met by gushing reviews.   While many of his choices have come under fire from both the left and the right on ideological grounds, the consensus seems to be that these are among the brightest, most capable people around.

Asia’s Ascendency Seen in Intelligence Forecast

By Joseph Snyder

The National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” released on November 20, poses a fascinating variety of alternate futures. 

Barack Obama: Al Qaeda’s Ideological Challenge

By Jeffrey Lightfoot

Chief Al Qaeda ideologue Ayman al-Zawahiri gave a good indicator of the current status of his organization’s ideological appeal when Al Qaeda released a video last week.

Terrorism Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

By James Joyner

Speaking to the Atlantic Council last Thursday, CIA director Michael Hayden declared that, “although Al-Qaeda has suffered serious setbacks, it remains a determined and adaptive enemy” and vowed that, while the American people have grown naturally complacent about the threat, he and his colleagues remain vigilant every day, motivated by the fact that the country […]

NIC Chairman Thomas Fingar Presents “Global Trends 2025”

By Peter Cassata

Dr. Thomas Fingar, the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), discussed the new report “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.”  The report analyzes the global situation 15 to 20 years in the future, touching on international security, political and social trends, globalization, and other transnational issues. 

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

The international system—as constructed following the Second World War—will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors.

Is it Too Late for Afghanistan?

By James Joyner

During his address this evening to the Atlantic Council, ISAF commander General David McKiernan emphasized the many positive trends in Afghanistan, noting that he preferred a “Glass Half Full” view. 

The Iskander Effect

By David Smith

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev told the Federal Assembly on November 5 that he will deploy SS-26 Iskander short-range semi-ballistic missiles in the heart of Central Europe.

Covering Intelligence is Hard

By James Joyner

One truism that I’ve noted over the years is that any event that I experience in person will invariably be reported in the press quite differently. That proved true again last night as I began absorbing media accounts of CIA Director Michael Hayden’s “State of al Qaeda Today” address to the Atlantic Council. 

Every Major Terrorist Threat Has Ties to Pakistan

By James Joyner

CIA Director Michael Hayden told the Atlantic Council this afternoon that al Qaeda’s safe haven in Pakistan’s ungoverned tribal areas have provided a “sanctuary” that has “allowed it to recover some capacity lost when expelled from Afghanistan” nearly seven years ago.

The Kaliningrad Missile Crisis

By Neil Leslie

The Kremlin’s latest move to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad is the first time since the Cold War that Russia has “declared its intention to create a military threat to the West.” Yet the nature of the threat does not represent a fundamental challenge to U.S. or European security and has been largely overblown on both […]

While We Weren’t Looking…

By Lynn Roche

The Atlantic Council’s Robert Manning recently focused our attention on the October Asia-Europe Summit in Beijing.  We Americans might have missed the significance of the emerging multipolarity and shifts in global power while up to our elbows in election politics and financial woes.