Featured commentary & analysis

The Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative provides strategic insight, trend evaluation and risk analysis to help elevate and sharpen the assessment of our connected, complex, and rapidly evolving world.

Featured in-depth research & reports

The Initiative leverages in-house expertise and cutting-edge tools such as data analytics, modeling, and simulations to provide pioneering research and analysis about the most important challenges of today and tomorrow.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

The Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series (ACSP) is the Atlantic Council’s flagship outlet for publishing high-level, strategic thinking. The series seeks to develop and promote sustainable, non-partisan strategies on the most important challenges facing the United States and its allies. The papers are authored by leading authorities and including a range of established and emerging strategic thinkers, from within and outside the Atlantic Council. The series is overseen by the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and works in conjunction with other Atlantic Council Centers to create regional strategy task forces focusing on East Asia, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Iran.




Thu, Feb 28, 2019

Strategic surprises in the first year: principles for preparation and response

Preparing for and responding to strategic surprises is always difficult; that difficulty is often magnified in an administration's first year. Ideas and prerequisites for responding to strategic surprise are laid out in Paul Miller's longer memorandum.

Strategy Consortium by Hal Brands

Central Europe National Security

Thu, Feb 28, 2019

Connecting strategy and resources in national security: 10 recommendations for the Trump administration

Connecting strategy and resources is the central tenet of national security strategy. The four-step process proposed by the Atlantic Council should be used by the Trump administration when considering how to connect its strategy to resources.

Strategy Consortium by Stephen J. Hadley, James N. Miller, and Mara E. Karlin

China Korea

Thu, Feb 28, 2019

Elements of national security strategy

This paper enumerates the key pieces of a national security strategy and explains their importance. It also explores several additional elements that can be found in some national security strategies; these additional elements are not strictly necessary for the strategy to be viable, but are intended to strengthen the document or the government’s ability to implement it.

Strategy Consortium by Malia DuMont

National Security Security & Defense

Thu, Feb 28, 2019

Purpose of a national security strategy

Since the original Congressional mandate and its update in the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act, the purpose of the National Security Strategy has changed in order to better reflect a changing global landscape. Today, there are six broad purposes for a National Security Strategy.

Strategy Consortium by Barry Pavel, Alex Ward

National Security Security & Defense

Thu, Feb 28, 2019

Incorporating Risk into National Security Planning

Risk is a critical concept for helping decision-makers identify and make policy choices that support strategic priorities, but it is often mis-applied. To ensure that risk is appropriately informing strategic decision-making, it is essential to avoid some common pitfalls by taking the approach described.

Strategy Consortium by Malia K. Du Mont

National Security Security & Defense

Thu, Feb 28, 2019

Strategic priorities for the next administration

What should be the strategic priorities for the next US presidential administration?

Strategy Consortium by

China National Security

Fri, Jan 25, 2019

How to strengthen the US approach to artificial intelligence

TO: US National Security Community FROM: Barry Pavel, Matthew Kroenig, and Anastasia Kazteridis DATE: January 25, 2019 SUBJECT: How to Strengthen the US Approach to Artificial Intelligence This Strategic Insights Memo (SIM) outlines and assesses the US government’s current approach to artificial intelligence (AI). Despite significant progress, the US Government (USG) is not where it […]

Strategic Insights Memo by Barry Pavel, Matthew Kroenig, and Anastasia Kazteridis

Defense Technologies National Security

Fri, Jan 18, 2019

Burrows quoted by the Sun on ISIS cyber capabilities

In the News by Mathew Burrows

Conflict Cybersecurity

Thu, Dec 20, 2018

Top 10 risks of 2019

Unfortunately, 2018 will not go down as a very memorable year in turning the page on the big issues of our time.  Trump is right to claim credit for starting a dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jung-un, but even that faces tests—as we outline—in the coming year. 

New Atlanticist by Robert A. Manning and Mathew J. Burrows

Conflict European Union

Mon, Oct 29, 2018

Burrows Quoted in Vox on the Collapse of the Political Center

Read the full article here.

In the News by Matthew Burrows