Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

By Greg Weaver

This issue brief will ask and answer the question of whether extending the New START limits is in the US national security interest.

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

Report Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Feb 20, 2026

Four options for arms control after New START

By Amy Woolf

With the last quantitative limit on the world's largest nuclear arsenals now expired, Washington finds itself in a new and uncertain era, with less clarity about Russia’s nuclear forces, plans to upgrade its own, and growing concern about China's. The best option may be trilateral talks—but not about a new arms control treaty.

Arms Control China

Report

Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

By Greg Weaver

This issue brief will ask and answer the question of whether extending the New START limits is in the US national security interest.

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Aug 27, 2025

Navigating the new normal: Strategic simultaneity, US Forces Korea flexibility, and alliance imperatives

By Bee Yun Jo

The future of deterrence on the Korean Peninsula—and indeed, the wider Indo-Pacific region—will hinge on Seoul’s ability to reframe US force realignments not as unilateral disengagements but as catalysts for action.

Defense Policy Korea

Commentary & quick analysis

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.

Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Oct 30, 2013

Leveraging Europe’s Potential for Transatlantic Missile Defense

By Ian Brzezinski and Patrick O’Reilly

One of the most important initiatives concerning US and European security has been the Washington-led effort to build a transatlantic missile defense architecture to counter the growing threat posed by the proliferation of missile technologies. This threat includes Iran’s increasingly capable missiles that many project will be soon able to strike the United States, as well […]

Missile Defense Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Oct 25, 2013

Will Turkey Implement Smart Defense?

By Patrick O’Reilly

Prime Minister Erdrogan’s recent announcement that Turkey is in discussions with China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corporation (CPMIEC) to acquire the FD-2000 (export version of the HQ-9) as Turkey’s first long-range anti-missile system is a significant step backward from the “Smart Defense” initiative endorsed by all leaders at the 2012 NATO Summit.

Missile Defense NATO

New Atlanticist

Jun 21, 2013

Nostalgia Is Not Strategy

By Robert Manning

President Obama’s Berlin speech and trip to Europe came at a historical inflection point: The European Union (EU) has been in recession and financial crisis for more than four years. Youth unemployment is a staggering 25 percent. The very idea of Europe is being called into question. Moreover, NATO’s purpose leaves many scratching their heads, […]

European Union International Organizations

New Atlanticist

Jun 20, 2013

Toward a Global Missile Defense Architecture

By Ian Brzezinski

The increasing prevalence of ballistic missiles has been highlighted by the latest tensions with North Korea, the ongoing confrontation with Iran, and Syria’s savage civil war. Approximately thirty countries are now armed with ballistic missiles. This number will grow, as will the range, accuracy, and lethality of the ballistic missiles available to friend and foe […]

Missile Defense Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Jun 16, 2013

MAD About You

By Ellen Tauscher and Igor Ivanov

After a series of setbacks and disappointments during President Barack Obama’s first term, U.S.-Russian political dialogue is finally gaining momentum.

Missile Defense Russia

Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence

China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia

Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report

Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

Nov 18, 2025

Punaro quoted in Air & Space Forces magazine on acquisition reform

By Atlantic Council

On November 18, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow MajGen Arnold Punaro, USMC (ret.) was quoted in an Air & Space Forces Magazine article entitled "What Experts Will Watch as the Pentagon Implements Acquisition Reform."

Defense Industry Defense Policy

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Defense Policy Missile Defense

Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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Nuclear strategy project

Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Arms control

Missile defense

Emerging threats

Must Reads

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

Reports & issue briefs

Countering Russian escalation in space

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

Four options for arms control after New START

Countering Russian escalation in space

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

Navigating the new normal: Strategic simultaneity, US Forces Korea flexibility, and alliance imperatives

Commentary & quick analysis

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

Leveraging Europe’s Potential for Transatlantic Missile Defense

Will Turkey Implement Smart Defense?

Nostalgia Is Not Strategy

Toward a Global Missile Defense Architecture

MAD About You

Past events

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review

In the news

Kroenig interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting on the expiration of New START

Kroenig quoted in Wall Street Journal on adversary nuclear capabilities

Amato in RealClearDefense on the 2025 National Security Strategy

Kroenig quoted in Wall Street Journal on the new nuclear age

Punaro quoted in Air & Space Forces magazine on acquisition reform

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