The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Oct 13, 2023

What needs to change about US nuclear weapons strategy?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts break down the 2023 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States report.
China Indo-Pacific
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 3, 2024

The US is building a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile. Congress must make sure it’s built right.

By Robert Soofer

There are forces at play—bureaucratic, budgetary, and programmatic—that could stymie the SLCM-N if US lawmakers do not pay close attention.
Defense Technologies Nuclear Deterrence
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran

New Atlanticist

Jun 12, 2025

Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran’s military and nuclear sites. What’s next?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts shed light on Israel’s major attack against Iran targeting its nuclear facilities and its implications for the region.

Conflict Defense Policy

New Atlanticist

Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security

Strategic Insights Memo

Mar 12, 2025

The hypersonic imperative

By Michael E. White

Hypersonic weapons and counter-hypersonic defenses will be essential for the United States to deter and, if necessary, prevail in a war against one or more great powers. This is why the Department of Defense and Congress must prioritize the accelerated fielding of these capabilities.

China Defense Industry

New Atlanticist

Nov 5, 2024

Nuclear weapons on the battlefield are a growing risk. US and allied militaries should prepare now.

By Brad T. Gericke and Donna Wilt

US military and defense thinkers must overcome two major misconceptions that for too long have shaped US actions regarding nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
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Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief May 1, 2023

US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity

By Keir Lieber, Daryl G. Press

Keir Lieber and Daryl Press lay out a vision for the future of US nuclear doctrine and strategy under the condition of nuclear tripolarity.
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Nov 15, 2023

US homeland missile defense: Room for expanded roles

By Robert Soofer and Matthew Costlow

Matthew Costlow & Robert Soofer explore how expanded roles for US homeland missile defense could enhance deterrence with two nuclear peers
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Report Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.
Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Jul 24, 2025

Five pillars for deterring strategic attacks

By Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine

As its highest priority, the Department of Defense must deter strategic attacks on the United States. A five-pillar strategy could guide efforts to prevent nuclear and nonnuclear threats while ensuring resilience and readiness against large-scale nuclear attacks on the US homeland.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Report

Jul 3, 2025

The National Defense Strategy Project

By Atlantic Council experts

As the world enters a pivotal new phase in global security, the United States must not only respond to current challenges but also anticipate those on the horizon. 

Artificial Intelligence Defense Policy

Issue Brief

May 30, 2025

New presidents and new nuclear developments test the United States–Republic of Korea alliance

By Heather Kearney, Amanda Mortwedt Oh

In the coming years, the US-South Korea (Republic of Korea, or ROK) alliance is likely to be tested in at least three fundamental ways: by a concerning growth in North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile weapons program; by changes to ROK defense capabilities and structures, including the establishment of ROK Strategic Command (ROKSTRATCOM); and by potential strategy and policy changes under new US and ROK political administrations.

Arms Control Elections

Report

May 12, 2025

A rising nuclear double-threat in East Asia: Insights from our Guardian Tiger I and II tabletop exercises

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert, Kyoko Imai

A decade from now, the United States will face even tougher challenges in the Indo-Pacific than it does today. With this in mind, the Atlantic Council’s Guardian Tiger tabletop exercise series is preparing mid-level government and military leaders to address such threats.

Arms Control China

Report

Apr 11, 2025

The imperative of augmenting US theater nuclear forces

By Greg Weaver

The United States and its allies and partners face an impending change in the threats they face from nuclear-armed adversaries: a strategic environment marked by two nuclear peer major powers.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia
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Past events

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow’s and Beijing’s defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 3:00 pm ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 pm ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
Online Event Wed, July 27, 2022 • 12:00 pm ET

Future Foreign Policy: A new nuclear era?
Arms Control China Nuclear Deterrence Nuclear Nonproliferation
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In the news

In the News

Jan 21, 2022

Manning in StratNews Global: China, North Korea, Russia-Ukraine, Security Top Of Japan-U.S. Talks

By Atlantic Council

On January 21, Manning featured on a panel on StratNews Global about the North Korean nuclear program, China’s growing military assertiveness, and other topics. The panelists discussed issues such as Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s first formal talks, new developments in North Korea’s nuclear program, China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, the situation […]

China East Asia

In the News

Jan 21, 2022

Manning in The Hill: Kim Jong Un won’t be ignored: What North Korean missile tests mean

By Atlantic Council

On January 21, Robert Manning published an op-ed in The Hill on recent North Korean missile tests and the message it sends the US about Kim Jong-un’s continued leverage. “This full-spectrum nuclear arsenal appears an effort to achieve a survivable nuclear triad with its estimated 20-50 nuclear weapons, perhaps altering the military balance. In fact, […]

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Jan 20, 2022

Manning in RFA: North Korea likely to launch ICBM to pressure the US soon [translated from Korean]

By Atlantic Council

On January 20, Manning was quoted in an RFA article about North Korea’s missile tests and the messages they send to the United States and its allies. “Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the US Atlantic Council, told RFA on the 20th that North Korea has been using tactics to obtain concessions in its nuclear negotiations with the US […]

Arms Control Indo-Pacific

In the News

Jan 20, 2022

Garlauskas quoted in Politico on the Biden administration’s North Korea policy

On January 20, 2022, Markus Garlauskas was quoted in a Politico article that discussed and evaluated the Biden administration’s policy towards North Korea. Garlauskas highlighted Pyongyang’s intentions to resume ICBM launch testing, stating that “North Korea appears to have been trying to fully establish the right international conditions for a resumption of ICBM launches for […]

Defense Policy Indo-Pacific

In the News

Jan 18, 2022

Manning in Voice of America: North Korea launches fourth missile in two weeks… [translated from Korean]

By Atlantic Council

On January 18, Robert Manning was quoted in a Voice of America article about recent North Korean ballistic missile launches. “Former State Department policy adviser Robert Manning said North Korea’s successive missile tests put into action Chairman Kim Jong-un’s willingness to develop a wide range of nuclear weapons and missiles at a military parade a […]

East Asia Korea
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Defense Policy Nuclear Deterrence

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.

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