Indo-Pacific

China as employer and consumer: Economic outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

By Arthur R. Kroeber

Economic growth in China is underpinned by very powerful structural factors that will remain in place for many years. These factors suggest that China will be able to sustain a high rate of growth in output and job creation during the period when the population of working age is at its peak (2005-2015), and that […]

China as consumer

By Kenneth Lieberthal

This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor […]

China as producer: Chinese industry after 25 years of reform

By Thomas Rawski

Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China’s industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and […]

Hu Jintao’s outbox

By Joseph Fewsmith

This paper addresses the challenges facing China’s surging economy.  As the country’s economy grows and becomes more open to the world market, it is also emerging as a greater force in the world economy. Furthermore, the party/state has (so far) been remarkably effective in adapting both to the governmental challenges of providing more regularized and […]

In search of a legacy: Three possible paths for Taiwan’s Chen Shui-bian

By Kay Webb Mayfield

Time and circumstances make it more and more unlikely that Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian will declare de jure independence for Taiwan during his term of office, but Chen has not abandoned his quest for a resolution of Taiwan’s status. The People’s Republic of China and the United States are on guard for new independence-leaning initiatives […]

Globalization of defense industries: China

The Chinese defense industrial complex (CDIC) can be looked at as a remarkable accomplishment, a worst-case example of Chinese state-owned enterprises and a strategic failure. When the People’s Republic of China was established in 1949, its economy and industrial base was an ash heap, yet within 20 years the CDIC was producing a full range […]