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EconoGraphics

Sep 22, 2015

Migrant Flows and the Future of Europe

By Global Business and Economics

As Europe confronts the migrant crisis, much of the current coverage remains fixed on short run trends, but in order to have a comprehensive perspective it is necessary to project these trends into the future. In spite of commonly held concerns of migrants’ effect on European identity, many of these nations’ birthrates and outflows of migrants will actually be higher than their intake of migrants. Negative flows of migrants could further weaken pension plans, as aging European populations struggle to balance social welfare models with demographic realities.

Afghanistan Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 15, 2015

Has the Renminbi Arrived as an International Currency?

By Global Business and Economics

As China slowly transitions from an investment and export based economy to a consumer based economy, the Chinese must also liberalize both their monetary affairs and the management of their currency. By increasing the wealth of Chinese consumers via their currency’s value, domestic demand will supplant the role of exports. For this process to be completed, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, must assume its place in the package of globally dominant currencies.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jul 28, 2015

Where Are US Sanctions Imposed?

By Global Business and Economics

On July 14, the United States, along with the P5+1, struck a deal with Iran to ease the heavy financial and banking sanctions that starved the country’s economy. Over the next decade, financial and trade sanctions will gradually be lifted, giving Iran the ability to export its plentiful oil and gas reserves and to purchase goods from abroad.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jul 22, 2015

Has Greece Been Effective at Downsizing Its Public Sector?

By Global Business and Economics

Greece and its EU counterparts made progress last week on negotiations, but some policy makers question whether Greece will truly adopt the measures necessary to recover economic stability.

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

EconoGraphics

Jul 14, 2015

Should Greece’s Request for Additional Debt Relief Be Dismissed?

By Global Business and Economics

Unsatisfied with the proposed austerity measures, Greece has been pushing for a comprehensive debt relief package from its creditors. In public, Greece has appealed to the 1953 London Conference when Western Germany was forgiven over half of its debt. One of Germany’s creditors then: Greece.

Economy & Business Eurozone

EconoGraphics

Jul 7, 2015

How Does Greece’s Public Debt Compare to Puerto Rico’s?

By Global Business and Economics

As Greece reaches crisis over its debts to Europe, Puerto Rico’s public debt has reached an impressive $72 billion, nearly 70% of its economic output. Meanwhile, Greece has slashed the growth of its debt since 2012.

Economy & Business Greece

EconoGraphics

Jun 30, 2015

Is There a Precedent for Greece’s Bank Holiday?

By Global Business and Economics

The Greek Government officials called for a bank holiday on Sunday which went into full effect Monday, June 29th. Although the country plans to open its banks’ doors next Monday, its financial duress is far from over.

Economy & Business Greece

EconoGraphics

Jun 23, 2015

How Does Greece’s Recovery Compare to Other IMF Bailouts?

By Global Business and Economics

As showdown talks over Greece take place in Europe this week, a quick examination of the recent history of bailouts is valuable.

Economy & Business Eurozone

EconoGraphics

Jun 16, 2015

Does ISDS Tip the Scales in Favor of Investors?

By Global Business and Economics

Looking at over 400 cases that have been decided through 2014, the rate of success for US and EU investors is 30% and 34%, respectively. Foreign states win against US claimants 42% of the time, and 36% of the time against EU-based firms, with the remainder being settled.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jun 9, 2015

Where Do Trillion-Dollar Asset Managers Hail From?

By Global Business and Economics

Of the 16 investment firms in the world that hold more than $1 trillion in assets, the US leads with 12 representatives, including well-known firms like BlackRock, Vanguard Group, and the asset management arms of Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon.

Economy & Business France

Content

EconoGraphics

Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

By BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

In July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union