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EconoGraphics

Jun 2, 2015

How big is the opportunity to increase US exports in the Transpacific Partnership?

By Global Business & Economics

Data from 2014 shows that while American exports to the 11 other TPP nations totaled more than half a trillion dollars in absolute terms, there remains considerable room for improvement in relative terms

Americas Australia

EconoGraphics

May 26, 2015

Who Will Finance Ukraine?

By Global Business & Economics Program

Ukraine’s economic stability is uncertain as the conflict with Russia endures. Alongside the negative impacts to growth, exports, and investment, the level of Ukraine’s debts are especially worrisome.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

May 20, 2015

Who’s Buying European Companies?

By Global Business & Economics

Who is purchasing European companies? Looking at the five biggest foreign acquisitions of European corporates since 2011 shows that the US are the biggest buyers by a considerable margin, with the China, Hong Kong, Brazil, and Japan following behind.

Brazil China

EconoGraphics

May 12, 2015

Two Decades of Sovereign Debt

By Global Business & Economics

Sovereign default is considered to be a rare event. But as the lessons of the past two decades show, they are far from extraordinary. According to the IMF, the main sovereign debt restructurings from the period spanning 1998 – 2010 totaled $117.6 billion. When Greece’s 2012 default is added to that sum, it means that […]

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

EconoGraphics

May 5, 2015

Creating the Digital Single Market

By Global Business & Economics Program

European E-Commerce is still largely confined within national borders.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Apr 28, 2015

Do Sanctions Work After All?

By Global Business & Economics

International Relations scholars disagree about whether economic sanctions are an effective tool to coerce countries to follow a certain course of action.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Apr 21, 2015

Exit, or Voice?

By Global Business & Economics

In March, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France decided to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), shocking the Obama administration.

Brazil China

EconoGraphics

Apr 14, 2015

Who is Investing Abroad?

By Global Business & Economics

While the US still leads the world in outflowing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the emerging markets are catching up quickly. Chinese outflowing FDI, in particular has grown tremendously: since 2005, it increased more than 30-fold in 8 years from $5 billion to $166 billion. While initial Chinese foreign investments focused on natural resource industries, over time the investments have spread to diverse industries like agriculture, manufacturing, and professional services. BRIC FDIs are emerging as key growth drivers for low income countries, improving their business environment, building infrastructure, creating jobs, and adding much-needed revenue to government coffers.

China Russia

EconoGraphics

Apr 7, 2015

Is Europe still vulnerable to a Greek default?

By Global Business & Economics Program

Private banks throughout Europe have significantly reduced their exposure to Greek debt (bank, public, and non-bank private sector debt) over the last five years. After Greece came under market pressure and eventually obtained ECB and IMF financial assistance in 2010, most European banks started to rapidly reduce their exposure to Greece. For instance, between 2010 and 2014 French banks’ holdings decreased from $63 billion to $2 billion.

Economy & Business Eurozone

EconoGraphics

Mar 31, 2015

The IMF’s Changing Role in Europe

By Global Business & Economics

The International Monetary Fund’s purpose and scope of work have changed since its founding after World War II. Whereas at first the Fund aimed to maintain monetary and exchange-rate stability among its members who were primarily advanced economies, today it faces its first credible challenge to its status as the world’s lender of last resort.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

Content

EconoGraphics

Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

By BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

In July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union