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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Apr 16, 2019

Is Zelenskiy really the Kremlin’s best hope in Ukraine?

By
Peter Dickinson

In the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election, the leading pro-Russian candidate secured 11 percent of the vote. Compare this to 2010 when pro-Kremlin candidate Viktor Yanukovych received 49 percent. This dramatic decline reflects the scale of the damage done to Russian interests in Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war. Russian aggression has alienated millions […]

Conflict
Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 9, 2019

Will the elections give the Ukrainian economy the kick It needs?

By
Anders Åslund

Between the two rounds of the presidential election, a strange calm has grasped Kyiv. The election billboards are gone, and so are the many local protests. The only drama takes place on the Internet, where the two remaining candidates duel with videos. This is a propitious moment to take the temperature of the Ukrainian economy. […]

Democratic Transitions
Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 8, 2019

Ukrainians are world champions at coping with crisis

By
Peter Dickinson

The ability to recover from national crises is plugged into Ukraine’s DNA.

Democratic Transitions
Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2019

What Ukraine needs from the west isn’t just cash

By
Danylo Lubkivsky

In 2019, Ukraine celebrates the centennial anniversary of the unification of its national lands. On January 22, 1919, the Act of Union marked a historic milestone: for the first time in centuries, the Ukrainian people had revived their nation and unified most of its territories. Then Russian aggression destroyed our freedom, like it did again […]

Conflict
Defense Policy


UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

Zelenskiy wins first round but that’s not the surprise

By
Mattia Nelles

The results of the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election did not surprise many. The four exit polls were remarkably close to one another and to the last comprehensive polls. They all displayed a similar picture: Volodymyr Zelenskiy would face off in the run-off with Poroshenko, who beat Tymoshenko. With the votes now counted, Zelenskiy […]

Conflict
Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

How Poroshenko could win and Zelenskiy could lose

By
Alexander J. Motyl

The first round of Ukraine’s presidential election went overwhelmingly to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but his victory in round two is by no means self-evident—especially if his rival, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, plays his cards right. Ironically, Poroshenko’s three main strengths are Zelenskiy’s three main weaknesses. Poroshenko has a distinguished record (with a variety of blemishes, of […]

Elections
Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

Who is really advising Zelenskiy?

By
Daniel Szeligowski

Showman Volodymyr Zelenskiy may soon become the next president of Ukraine. His chances of winning the second round, slated for April 21, are high. He has long prepared to go into politics, thus his victory in the first round was neither sudden nor unexpected. However, he lacks any political experience and seems to have little […]

Democratic Transitions
Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 3, 2019

When javelins aren’t enough

By
Diane Francis

Several US military experts were asked about the best way forward and were divided as to priorities: More military aid, more diplomacy, more sanctions, a clean-up of Ukrainian corruption, or all in varying degrees.

Conflict
European Union


UkraineAlert

Apr 3, 2019

What Zelenskiy needs to do to next

By
Basil Kalymon

On March 31, Ukrainians gave a first-round victory to Volodymyr Zelenskiy for president with an endorsement of just over 30 percent. The incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, obtained around 16 percent, entering the runoff over third placed Yulia Tymoshenko. The voters clearly expressed their disillusionment with the existing political establishment and have chosen as frontrunner an outsider […]

Conflict
Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2019

What the business community wants from Ukraine’s next president

By
Andy Hunder

Sending law enforcement officers in balaclavas armed with Kalashnikovs kicking down a company’s office door in a frantic search for financial records or tax documents is quite possibly the worst message a government can send to business owners, shareholders or executives. This is what I told President Petro Poroshenko a couple of years ago in […]

Elections
Fiscal and Structural Reform

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UkraineAlert

Dec 1, 2018

From the Azov Sea to Washington DC: How Russophobia Became Russia’s Leading Export

By Peter Dickinson

Vladimir Putin had a simple explanation for the wave of international condemnation that engulfed Moscow in the wake of Russia’s November 25 Black Sea attack on the Ukrainian Navy. According to the Kremlin leader, it was all Ukraine’s doing. “Kyiv is actively stirring up anti-Russian sentiment,” he lamented. “That’s all they have—and it works.” This […]

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 30, 2018

How the West Got Martial Law in Ukraine Totally Wrong

By John E. Herbst

The past several days have been historic ones in Ukraine’s development as a sovereign and democratic nation. Moscow’s unprovoked attack on and seizure of three Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea on November 25 began this process. This attack represents a serious escalation of Kremlin aggression because it was done openly by regular Russian military […]

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 30, 2018

What Would a Tymoshenko Presidency Mean?

By Andreas Umland

Many Western observers would like to see a change in Ukrainian leadership following the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some would prefer to see a young MP from parliament’s Euro-Optimists group become president; others hope the country’s next leader will come from one of Ukraine’s new parties, such as Democratic Alliance or Power of the […]

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 29, 2018

How to Put Putin in His Place

By Michael Carpenter

Russia’s act of aggression against Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea on Sunday should not be dismissed as an isolated incident in its four-and-a-half year old war against Ukraine. This pre-meditated attack is part of a broader effort by Moscow to take full control of the Kerch Strait—a strategic chokepoint that connects Russia to Crimea […]

NATO
Russia

UkraineAlert

Nov 29, 2018

How Ukraine Can Begin to Catch Up with the EU

By Ivan Miklos and Pavlo Kukhta

Two major risks are clouding Ukraine’s economy and holding back investment and economic growth. One of them is politics. In 2019, the country will hold both presidential and parliamentary elections, in the spring and autumn, respectively. These will be the second elections since the 2014 revolution, and their outcomes will determine whether the country continues […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 28, 2018

Russia Openly Attacks Ukraine. Why Now?

By Ruslan Minich and Vitalii Rybak

On November 25, Russia opened fire on three Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait and then seized them. On November 26, Kyiv imposed martial law in ten regions for thirty days as a response to the attack. Contrary to Russia’s previous military presence in Crimea or its military support of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, both […]

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 28, 2018

Explainer: What Just Happened Between Russia and Ukraine, and Why Does It Matter?

By Melinda Haring and Alexander Vershbow

On November 25, Russia seized three Ukrainian naval vessels as they were preparing to enter the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. The Russian Coast Guard rammed a Ukrainian tugboat and fired on the three Ukrainian ships, injuring up to six crewmembers. Twenty-three Ukrainian sailors are now in Russian custody. This is the first […]

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 27, 2018

Why Martial Law Cheapens Ukraine’s Democracy

By Mattia Nelles

On November 25, Russia attacked Ukraine again. It was a vivid reminder that Ukraine is at war and the situation can escalate at any time. Three Ukrainian vessels were shot at and seized by Russian maritime forces. Twenty-three Ukrainian sailors are now in Russian captivity. It’s the first time Russia has openly attacked Ukrainian forces.

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 26, 2018

Russia’s Provocations in the Sea of Azov: What Should Be Done?

By Stephen Blank

On November 25 Russian vessels blocked Ukrainian ones from entering the Sea of Azov, fired on Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea, rammed some of those ships, seized three Ukrainian ships, and wounded six in these exchanges. Russia also dispatched helicopters to the area to maintain surveillance and fire capability over any approaching Ukrainian vessels. […]

Russia
Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Nov 26, 2018

Q&A: Russia Attacks Ukraine Again. How Should Ukraine, NATO, and the West Respond?

By Melinda Haring

On November 25, Russia fired on the Ukrainian Navy in the Black Sea, injuring at least two Ukrainian sailors. Many experts have warned that Russia is opening a new front in its forgotten war in Ukraine on the Black and Azov Seas, illegally boarding commercial Ukrainian vessels and increasing its military presence to about 120 […]

Russia
Ukraine