Atlantic Council Strategy Papers Series

Our experts share findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade, spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2026 and beyond, and explore the future of AI with video interviews of our tech experts.

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Our experts share findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade, spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2025 and beyond, and imagine three different scenarios for the next decade.

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Our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2024. We also share “snow leopards,” or under-the-radar phenomena to watch in the years ahead, and findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could change over the next ten years.

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Our experts identify the top risks and opportunities awaiting the world in 2023 and “snow leopards” to keep an eye on over the coming years. We share findings from our survey of global strategists on what the world may look like in 2033.

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The inaugural edition of a new annual report from the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, home for the last decade to one of the world’s premier strategic foresight shops.

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The United States and the People’s Republic of China seek to out-compete the other to achieve first-mover advantage in breakthrough technologies and to be the best country in terms of the commercial scaling of emerging and existing technologies.

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How can the United States and its partners counter the Kremlin’s aggressive policies abroad while laying the groundwork for what could one day be a mutually beneficial relationship with a Russia that respects the rule of law and international norms?

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Working together, like-minded allies and partners can once again advance their interests and values, and the broader rules-based system, and fend off the twenty-first-century challenge posed by the Chinese Communist Party.

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Though US rhetoric about taking control of Greenland exacerbated tensions between Washington and some of its closest European allies in January, the legacy of cooperation offers a stable foundation on which to build a path forward for Greenland that makes the United States stronger, safer, stronger, and more prosperous, consistent with the 2025 US National Security Strategy and the 2026 US National Defense Strategy.

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Explore the relationship between the status of the United States as a geopolitical superpower and the role of the US dollar as the world’s dominant currency. It examines how these two facets of US power have reinforced each other and how a decline in either of them could trigger a downward cycle in US influence around the world.

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The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean lies in strengthening their Western Hemisphere partnership. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership.

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The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center present a new series on US and allied strategy in the Western Hemisphere.

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Marek Jestrab considers a naval blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China and advances recommendations for the United States, Taiwan, and like-minded nations to resist and respond to a blockade.

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Ukraine’s counteroffensives, backed by expanded and accelerated US and allied support, continue to push Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory, although at a reduced rate. These hard-won successes, however, bring with them possible challenges that also must be addressed.

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Clementine Starling, Tyson Wetzel, and Christian Trotti articulate their vision and recommendations for the next US National Defense Strategy, including clearer prioritization, investments and divestments, reposturing of US forces, a new warfighting concept, and a focus on transnational threats.

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Outer space is rapidly transforming as new actors test new limits. Clementine Starling, Mark Massa, Christopher Mulder, and Julia Siegel call for the United States and its allies and partners to secure space over the next three decades or risk wasting the promise of this emerging domain.

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China presents the most important challenge to the United States in the twenty-first century. To address this challenge, the United States urgently needs “an integrated, operational, and bipartisan national strategy.”

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A preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the pandemic and possible directions for the global system after the still-unfolding crisis.

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The COVID-19 pandemic is an acute crisis that is further destabilizing an already weakened rules-based international system. With cooperation, determination, and resolve, the United States and its allies can recover and revitalize an adapted system to bring about decades of future freedom, peace, and prosperity.

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This paper examines the geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 pandemic by identifying key strategic shocks and tensions exacerbated by the virus. It also identifies uncertainties for the global order and provides policy recommendations for how the United States and its allies should address the pandemic.

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AI is expected to have a transformational impact on the future of geopolitics, defense, and security. In this fluctuating environment, where the US is engaged in a high-stakes competition with is near-peer adversaries, and AI is enabling paradigm-shifting changes in public and private sector operations, how should the US respond?

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We need a new strategy—one that is both ambitious and innovative, geared towards meeting the challenges and opportunities that the new decade brings.

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Our conclusion in 2016’s Global Risks 2035 was that state-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism. In the two years since, the post-Cold War order has continued to unravel without a “new normal” emerging.

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The United States faces threats from outside its borders, but also from within. This report, written by John Raidt, unpacks how the fuel—money—drives the cartel’s machinations as it interacts with and exploits amplifying forces—legal, structural, media, technological, and social.

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According to some projections, the majority of all global economic activity could take place within Asia by 2050. Military might often follows economic power, and Asian countries are already spending more than European states on defense. Both of these developments reflect a broader shift in global power from West to East.

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China’s President Xi Jinping has ambitious visions for Asia, while the rest of the world reshuffles to find its place in the rapidly changing global order. The United States would be better off engaging with the BRI and trying to influence its design and mechanics from within, rather than staying on the sidelines and witnessing its allies gravitating toward China.

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Sixty years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Europe faces its greatest challenges, and possibly its sharpest turning point, since World War II. This report offers a sobering look at the possible future for Europe with the hope of reigniting the bond between Americans and Europeans so that we may build a better future together.

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As the new administration considers ways to ensure US national security and economic growth, a newly engaged Latin America presents a wealth of opportunity on myriad fronts: urbanization, human capital, open markets, energy reform, technology, and the fight against corruption.

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The future of the United States and the world will be most secure in the long term with an emphasis on future prosperity unlocked by the Internet. Prosperity for the global economy is only assured if the United States and like-minded nations, civil society, and other nonstate actors all work toward a goal of making defense easier than attack.

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Africa’s story is one of economic dynamism that is driven, in part, by political reform and improvements in governance. There are very real security, humanitarian, and developmental challenges that remain to be confronted. The United States has a stake in helping to tackle these challenges, and it is in its own national interest to do so.

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Ellen Laipson presents a strategy to reduce prospects for a military confrontation with Iran; improve the regional security environment by working with trusted partners and with Iran; and, eventually, enable Iran and the United States to build cooperation in diverse areas of shared concern.

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There are growing risks and threats to US satellites, civilian and military alike, and challenges to stated US goals in space. The question for the new administration, however, is whether hegemonic means to address those challenges are likely to achieve US goals.

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To better deal with this new global economic environment, the United States requires a new strategy for the twenty-first century. That strategy should enable the country to shape, steer, and sustain a new global economic order that accomplishes several key objectives underpinning prosperity and stability for greater numbers of Americans.

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The fundamental challenge for modern wealthy democracies committed to promoting better governance is that their opportunities are hostage to the preferences of national elites in closed-access polities, where political power is exercised in arbitrary ways, and where most of the population lacks access to services, including the rule of law.

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The paper advocates energy policies which focus on preventing the catastrophic consequences of climate change by accelerating the modernization of its energy sector without creating major disruptions to the American lifestyle.

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The United States should seek stability while leveraging dynamic trends at the same time. The central task facing America is “to harness change in order to save the system,” meaning the preservation of the rules-based international order that has benefited billions around the world, including Americans themselves, since 1945.

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