Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

Global and regional trade systems

By Robert A. Manning

In the context of growing concerns over the global trading system, intra-regional accords have proliferated, in part as a hedge against US economic nationalism and global uncertainty. Many states are also looking to increase ties with the Asia-Pacific as the key driver of global growth.

Issue briefs and reports

Jun 30, 2020

Assessing Indian digital trade policies: Will they support a $5 trillion economy?

By Mark Linscott

Trade policy has come to the fore as a growing number of countries restrict exports of critical medical supplies to ensure sufficient availability for patients in-country. In this crisis, international collaboration to keep trade flowing has been limited and has not prevented many countries from imposing new trade restrictions.

Digital Policy Economy & Business

Report

Jun 29, 2020

Ukrainian business leaders advocated better economic policy and rule of law: A report card

By Anders Åslund

During his presidency, President Zelenskyy promised to bring major reform to Ukraine. One year on, what reforms have been achieved, and what obstacles remain for Ukraine?

Corruption Democratic Transitions
Breton- on digital sovereignty

Issue Brief

Jun 22, 2020

The European Union and the search for digital sovereignty: Building “Fortress Europe” or preparing for a new world?

By Frances Burwell, Kenneth Propp

However the EU redefines sovereignty post-COVID-19—including technological or digital sovereignty—the impact will not be limited to Europe and European companies.

Digital Policy Economy & Business

Report

Jun 18, 2020

An affordable defense of Asia

By T.X. Hammes

US military advantages over China are steadily eroding. Therefore, in this inaugural report for Forward Defense, T.X. Hammes crafts a new strategy and corresponding operational concepts which leverage geography and emerging technology to improve the US and allied warfighting posture in Asia.

China Conflict
An elevated view of Saudi Arabia

In-Depth Research & Reports

Jun 17, 2020

Assessing Saudi Vision 2030: A 2020 review

By Stephen Grand, Katherine Wolff

Executive summary When global oil prices collapsed in summer 2014, Saudi Arabia confronted one of the most daunting economic challenges of its modern history. Upon ascending to the throne the following year, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and his son Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (now the crown prince) responded by developing an ambitious […]

Economy & Business Energy Transitions

Report

Jun 15, 2020

The reverse cascade: Enforcing security on the global IoT supply chain

By Nathaniel Kim, Trey Herr, and Bruce Schneier

The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the increasing convergence of the physical and digital worlds and it affects us all. Hundreds of “things” are being connected to the Internet and each other, with more than fifty billion devices expected to be connected by 2030. Many IoT devices are manufactured abroad at low cost with little consideration for security. How can we secure these devices, especially those manufactured outside the United States?

Cybersecurity Internet of Things

Issue briefs and reports

Jun 5, 2020

Operation Carthage: How a Tunisian company conducted influence operations in African presidential elections

By Andy Carvin, Luiza Bandeira, Graham Brookie, Iain Robertson, Nika Aleksejeva, Alyssa Kann, Kanishk Karan, Ayushman Kaul, Tessa Knight, Jean le Roux, Roman Osadchik, Esteban Ponce de Leon

A Tunisia-based company operated a sophisticated digital campaign involving multiple social media platforms and websites in an attempt to influence the country’s 2019 presidential election, as well as other recent elections in Africa. In an exclusive investigation that began in September 2019, the DFRLab uncovered dozens of online assets with connections to Tunisian digital communications firm UReputation. On June 5, 2020, after conducting its own investigation, Facebook announced it had taken down more than 900 assets affiliated with the UReputation operation, including 182 user accounts, 446 pages, and 96 groups, as well as 209 Instagram accounts. The operation also involved the publication of multiple Francophone websites, some going back more than five years.

Africa Disinformation

Report

Jun 5, 2020

New challenges and dwindling returns for Russia’s national champions, Gazprom and Rosneft

By Anders Åslund & Steven Fisher

As Russia’s economic future is clouded by negative demographic trends, new energy technologies and efficiencies, volatile commodity prices, and the likelihood of continued Western sanctions, Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia’s two natural resource champions face a comeuppance: international competition, global and regional market access, capital investment, and revenue/cost efficiency.

Economy & Business Geopolitics & Energy Security

In-Depth Research & Reports

Jun 2, 2020

Geometries of deterrence: Assessing defense arrangements in Europe’s northeast

By Hans Binnendijk and Conor Rodihan

Nations in Europe’s northeast cooperate through a variety of multilateral security and defense arrangements. “Geometries of Deterrence” assesses how these arrangements individually and collectively contribute to deterrence and defense in Northeastern Europe.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Issue Brief

Jun 1, 2020

Executive summary: The virus and global order

By Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel

The COVID-19 pandemic is having dramatic effects on everyday life, but its geopolitical implications could prove to be even more profound. The pandemic is exacerbating and unleashing pressure points in the global order, including intensified US-China competition, that could fundamentally reshape geopolitics.

China Coronavirus

Issue Brief

Jun 1, 2020

Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era?

By Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel

The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed pressure points in the global order and threatens to unravel the rules-based international system. This paper examines the geopolitical implications of the pandemic by identifying key strategic shocks and tensions exacerbated by the virus. It also identifies uncertainties for the global order and provides policy recommendations for how the United States and its allies should address the pandemic.

China Coronavirus

Report

May 26, 2020

European energy security and the critical role of transatlantic energy cooperation

By Richard L. Morningstar, András Simonyi, Olga Khakova, Jennifer T. Gordon

Transatlantic cooperation is essential to European energy security, which is and should remain a key national security priority for the United States. European energy security is crucial for the maintenance of a strong European economy and for European political stability, both of which are in the best interests of the United States. This report recommends that the United States and the EU focus their energy cooperation in several areas that will benefit the EU’s efforts to meet climate targets and that, at the same time, will also bolster energy security.

Energy & Environment Europe & Eurasia

Report

May 16, 2020

Downstream oil theft: Countermeasures and good practices

By Dr. David Soud with contributing authors Dr. Ian Ralby and Rohini Ralby

Downstream oil theft has become a global problem. Since most of the world’s energy systems still rely on oil, fuel smugglers are nearly always able to find markets for their goods. Moreover, as oil is not inherently illegal, it is generally an easy product to move, buy, and sell. Profits from oil theft are frequently used to fund terrorism and other illegal activities.

Energy & Environment Energy Markets & Governance
Destroyed village in Lebanon

In-Depth Research & Reports

May 13, 2020

Counting the cost: Avoiding another war between Israel and Hezbollah

By Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion

The Atlantic Council has released a new report, “Counting the Cost: Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah,” authored by Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion.

Conflict Crisis Management

Issue Brief

May 11, 2020

Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal two years on: Maximum pressure, minimum outcomes

By David Mortlock

Two years ago, US President Donald J. Trump walked into the White House Diplomatic Reception Room and announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran and has adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” to compel Iran to change its behavior […]

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business
A net launched from a net-capture system just before catching its target, Quantico, Virginia (December 2018). Source: Red Six Solutions

Issue Brief

May 4, 2020

Drone attacks against critical infrastructure: A real and present threat

By Dr. Scott Crino and Conrad “Andy” Dreby

Read the Middle East Program’s new paper on the use of weaponized drones in the Middle East, with recommendations for policymakers.

Drones Middle East

Conflict, Risk, and Tech

Apr 30, 2020

Loose cobras: DPRK regime succession and uncertain control over offensive cyber capabilities

By JD Work

Unconfirmed rumors surfaced in mid April 2020 regarding the potential incapacitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, leading to speculation about the ramifications of a sudden transition of leadership in Pyongyang. These rumors raise serious concerns over the stability of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) control of offensive cyber operations capabilities.

Cybersecurity East Asia
Cover Image for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policy

Global Energy Forum

Apr 30, 2020

Sustainable aviation fuel policy in the United States: A pragmatic way forward

By Fred Ghatala

Aviation’s reliance on fossil fuels, its expected future growth rates, and the service lifespan of aircraft make it a difficult section of the transportation sector to decarbonize.

Energy & Environment Renewables & Advanced Energy

Issue briefs and reports

Apr 27, 2020

The future of US-Iraq relations

By C. Anthony Pfaff

This Atlantic Council Iraq Initiative report by Nonresident Senior Fellow Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff analyzes the current challenges in the US-Iraq relationship and presents policy recommendations.

Iraq Middle East
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