Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Report Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?

Arms Control China

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Jun 18, 2026

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

By Christopher Lee, Ben Blane, and Markus Garlauskas

To maximize its deterrent and warfighting effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States must reform its military command-and-control structure in Northeast Asia.

Arms Control East Asia

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

By Henry “Trey” Obering

The United States should pursue a comprehensive missile defense system to protect the homeland from advanced threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. Political will from the Trump administration and advances in technology make the idea of the long-discussed "dome" over the United States more feasible now than ever.

Missile Defense Security & Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Why US strategic nuclear forces must expand after New START

By Paul Amato

With the New START treaty's caps on the US nuclear force expired, the United States has an opportunity to increase and adapt its nuclear force to deter both Russia and China. Policymakers should seize it.

China Defense Policy

Commentary & quick analysis

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.

Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Mar 28, 2018

Kissing the ring: Kim pledges denuclearization after meeting with China’s Xi

By Robert A. Manning

Overnight, China ended the mystery and intrigue of its secret visitor: Yes, it was North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, making his first foreign trip to Beijing. While there, Kim pledged a commitment to North Korean denuclearization. Kim said: “It is our consistent stand to be committed to denuclearization in accordance with the will of […]

China Korea

New Atlanticist

Mar 1, 2018

Vladimir Putin Flexes His Nuclear Muscles

By Ashish Kumar Sen

Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 1 boasted that Russia has developed “invincible” nuclear-capable missiles that can render existing missile defense systems “completely useless.” Putin used his annual state of the nation speech—delivered just weeks before the March 18 presidential election that he is guaranteed to win—to tout Russia’s military might.

Nuclear Nonproliferation Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Feb 2, 2018

Reviewing the Nuclear Posture Review: Here’s what you need to know

By Atlantic Council

US President Donald J. Trump’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) calls for enhanced deterrence and a larger nuclear arsenal. The administration released the new review on February 2. Outlined in the strategy is Trump’s decision to pursue a path toward augmenting nuclear capabilities against the backdrop of increasing tensions with North Korea—as it moves ever closer […]

National Security Nuclear Deterrence

New Atlanticist

Dec 6, 2017

Here’s what the new NDAA means for missile defense

By Matthew Kroenig

The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed by the US Congress in November prioritizes investments in homeland missile defense. US President Donald J. Trump has called for a “state-of-the-art” missile defense system and this new defense budget begins to take steps in that direction. The bill authorizes a $12.3-billion-dollar topline budget for the Missile Defense […]

Korea Missile Defense

New Atlanticist

Oct 23, 2017

The North Korea nuclear threat and homeland missile defense

By Matthew Kroenig

In order to effectively address the growing tensions posed by North Korean nuclear capabilities, Washington needs a comprehensive strategy that will include a range of efforts, including, importantly, strengthened homeland missile defenses. Last week, US President Donald J. Trump, referring to the North Korean missile threat, claimed that “we have missiles that can knock out […]

Korea Missile Defense

Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence

China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia

Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report

Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

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Defense Policy Missile Defense

Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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Nuclear strategy project

Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Arms control

Missile defense

Emerging threats

Must Reads

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

Reports & issue briefs

Strategy for a new nuclear age

Countering Russian escalation in space

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

Why US strategic nuclear forces must expand after New START

Commentary & quick analysis

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

Kissing the ring: Kim pledges denuclearization after meeting with China’s Xi

Vladimir Putin Flexes His Nuclear Muscles

Reviewing the Nuclear Posture Review: Here’s what you need to know

Here’s what the new NDAA means for missile defense

The North Korea nuclear threat and homeland missile defense

Past events

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review

In the news

Marine published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on trilateral arms control

Kroenig and Marine published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Kroenig published in Foreign Policy on Iran’s uranium enrichment

Wilkening quoted in Indo-Pacific Defense Forum on hypersonic threats

Costa in the Washington Post on military readiness in Iran

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