Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.
China Missile Defense
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

By Greg Weaver

This issue brief will ask and answer the question of whether extending the New START limits is in the US national security interest.
Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence
Nuclear strategy project

Report Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.
Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Feb 20, 2026

Four options for arms control after New START

By Amy Woolf

With the last quantitative limit on the world's largest nuclear arsenals now expired, Washington finds itself in a new and uncertain era, with less clarity about Russia’s nuclear forces, plans to upgrade its own, and growing concern about China's. The best option may be trilateral talks—but not about a new arms control treaty.

Arms Control China

Report

Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

By Greg Weaver

This issue brief will ask and answer the question of whether extending the New START limits is in the US national security interest.

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Aug 27, 2025

Navigating the new normal: Strategic simultaneity, US Forces Korea flexibility, and alliance imperatives

By Bee Yun Jo

The future of deterrence on the Korean Peninsula—and indeed, the wider Indo-Pacific region—will hinge on Seoul’s ability to reframe US force realignments not as unilateral disengagements but as catalysts for action.

Defense Policy Korea
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Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.
Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.
Defense Policy National Security
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Oct 10, 2017

What are the Implications of Decertification of the Iran Nuclear Deal?

By Ashish Kumar Sen

The expectation that US President Donald J. Trump will decertify the nuclear deal with Iran this week raises the question: what would be the implications of decertification? Trump faces an October 15 deadline to certify to the US Congress that Iran is complying with the terms of the nuclear agreement that the Islamic Republic struck […]

European Union International Organizations

New Atlanticist

Jul 18, 2017

Alternative Futures: Rethinking the European Nuclear Posture

By Alexandra Marksteiner

Lingering uncertainty regarding US support for NATO and burden-sharing among allies has raised questions as to the future of the NATO nuclear-sharing arrangement. While US President Donald J. Trump’s reaffirmation of the US commitment to Article 5, NATO’s mutual defense clause, may have temporarily placated allies, intense feelings of insecurity among the European allies remain. […]

Nuclear Nonproliferation Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Jul 5, 2017

Entering a ‘Very Dangerous Era’ With North Korea

By Ashish Kumar Sen

North Korea’s successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that has the ability to strike Alaska could embolden Pyongyang to be more aggressive in the future, according to an Atlantic Council analyst. “With this nuclear ICBM ‘shield,’ the DPRK [North Korea] likely will be much more aggressive in every other area of its foreign […]

China East Asia

New Atlanticist

Feb 15, 2017

Washington must respond to Russia’s new nuclear missile

By Matthew Kroenig

The New York Times reported on February 14 that Russia has secretly deployed two batteries of a new nuclear-capable cruise missile in violation of its international treaty obligations. The news is disturbing, but hardly surprising. Unless the United States and its allies respond promptly, the situation is likely only to deteriorate further. Russia’s missile deployments […]

Arms Control Missile Defense

New Atlanticist

May 6, 2016

Why NATO Allies Should Be Worried About the Scottish Elections

By John Johnston

NATO partners must take a closer look at the defense policies of Scottish political parties in the wake of the Scottish National Party’s historic election victory on May 5 and its leader’s declaration that she reserves the right to hold a second independence referendum if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union “against our will.” […]

NATO Nuclear Nonproliferation
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Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence
China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 am ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
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In the news

In the News

Feb 18, 2026

Kroenig interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting on the expiration of New START

By Atlantic Council

On February 13, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting about the expiration of New START and implications for the US and its allies.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

In the News

Jan 30, 2026

Kroenig quoted in Wall Street Journal on adversary nuclear capabilities

By Atlantic Council

On January 30, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in The Wall Street Journal on Russian and Chinese nuclear capabilities amid discussions on renewing New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

China Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Jan 30, 2026

Amato in RealClearDefense on the 2025 National Security Strategy

By Atlantic Council

On January 29, Forward Defense Nonresident Senior Fellow Paul Amato published an article in RealClearDefense on the Trump administration’s ambiguity on nuclear deterrence in the Korean peninsula. In the article, Amato argues that silence on the regime ending policy risks emboldening North Korea and unsettling South Korea and Japan.

Japan Korea

In the News

Nov 18, 2025

Kroenig quoted in Wall Street Journal on the new nuclear age

On November 16, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in an article in the Wall Street Journal titled “The Nuclear-Arms Race Is Now a Three-Way Contest.” Kroenig discusses the nuclear competition between the United States, Russia, and China.

China Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Nov 18, 2025

Punaro quoted in Air & Space Forces magazine on acquisition reform

By Atlantic Council

On November 18, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow MajGen Arnold Punaro, USMC (ret.) was quoted in an Air & Space Forces Magazine article entitled "What Experts Will Watch as the Pentagon Implements Acquisition Reform."

Defense Industry Defense Policy
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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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