Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Report

Sep 8, 2026

Preparing for and countering limited nuclear attacks in East Asia: Guardian Tiger III

By Markus Garlauskas with John Park and Kyoko Imai. Contributors: Andrew Brown and Jonathan Corrado

The risk of North Korea launching a limited nuclear attack will likely increase over the coming decade. The United States and its allies are not preparing adequately to deter and prevail in the face of such nuclear strikes.

Indo-Pacific Korea

Issue Brief

Jun 18, 2026

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

By Christopher Lee, Ben Blane, and Markus Garlauskas

To maximize its deterrent and warfighting effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States must reform its military command-and-control structure in Northeast Asia.

Arms Control East Asia

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome 

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

By Henry “Trey” Obering

The United States should pursue a comprehensive missile defense system to protect the homeland from advanced threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. Political will from the Trump administration and advances in technology make the idea of the long-discussed "dome" over the United States more feasible now than ever.

Missile Defense Security & Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Commentary & quick analysis

Past events

In the news

In the News

Sep 29, 2021

Manning in Voice of America Korea: North Korea missile test intended to force concessions

By Atlantic Council

On September 29, Robert Manning was interviewed in VOA, providing his insights on the recent North Korean short-range ballistic missile test. Manning described the test as a typical political gambit designed to create a mini crisis, designed to force concessions from the Biden administration. More about our expert

Korea Korean

In the News

Sep 28, 2021

Manning on TRT World Now: North Korean missile test “not a coincidence”

By Atlantic Council

On September 28, Robert Manning was interviewed on TRT World about the most recent North Korean missile test. Manning described the missile test as a clear attempt to gain concessions from the Biden administration. Manning argued that North Korea is aiming to place preconditions on any dialogue with the United States. The Biden administration has […]

Indo-Pacific Korea

In the News

Sep 24, 2021

Manning in Voice of America Korea: Experts react to President Biden’s comments about North Korea at the UN

By Atlantic Council

On September 24, Robert Manning was quoted in Voice of America, remarking on the content of President Biden’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly related to North Korea. Manning disagreed with criticisms that US policy towards North Korea is too “vague” and argued that the United States is under no obligation to provide further […]

Korea Korean

In the News

Sep 10, 2021

Slocombe and Soofer call for the US to stay the course in missile defense in Breaking Defense

By Atlantic Council

Walter Slocombe and Robert Soofer argue that the United States should stay the bipartisan course in missile defense policy.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

In the News

Aug 26, 2021

Binnendijk in Defense News: Here’s how Biden could mitigate damage done by the Afghan withdrawal

By Hans Binnendijk

Hans Binnendijk and Robert Bell write that the United States must act quickly to mitigate the damage done to America’s global credibility and alliance leadership

Afghanistan Arms Control

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.