The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Download our Brochure

Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Oct 13, 2023

What needs to change about US nuclear weapons strategy?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts break down the 2023 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States report.
China Indo-Pacific
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 3, 2024

The US is building a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile. Congress must make sure it’s built right.

By Robert Soofer

There are forces at play—bureaucratic, budgetary, and programmatic—that could stymie the SLCM-N if US lawmakers do not pay close attention.
Defense Technologies Nuclear Deterrence
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Oct 10, 2017

What are the Implications of Decertification of the Iran Nuclear Deal?

By Ashish Kumar Sen

The expectation that US President Donald J. Trump will decertify the nuclear deal with Iran this week raises the question: what would be the implications of decertification? Trump faces an October 15 deadline to certify to the US Congress that Iran is complying with the terms of the nuclear agreement that the Islamic Republic struck […]

European Union International Organizations

New Atlanticist

Jul 18, 2017

Alternative Futures: Rethinking the European Nuclear Posture

By Alexandra Marksteiner

Lingering uncertainty regarding US support for NATO and burden-sharing among allies has raised questions as to the future of the NATO nuclear-sharing arrangement. While US President Donald J. Trump’s reaffirmation of the US commitment to Article 5, NATO’s mutual defense clause, may have temporarily placated allies, intense feelings of insecurity among the European allies remain. […]

Nuclear Nonproliferation Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Jul 5, 2017

Entering a ‘Very Dangerous Era’ With North Korea

By Ashish Kumar Sen

North Korea’s successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that has the ability to strike Alaska could embolden Pyongyang to be more aggressive in the future, according to an Atlantic Council analyst. “With this nuclear ICBM ‘shield,’ the DPRK [North Korea] likely will be much more aggressive in every other area of its foreign […]

China East Asia

New Atlanticist

Feb 15, 2017

Washington must respond to Russia’s new nuclear missile

By Matthew Kroenig

The New York Times reported on February 14 that Russia has secretly deployed two batteries of a new nuclear-capable cruise missile in violation of its international treaty obligations. The news is disturbing, but hardly surprising. Unless the United States and its allies respond promptly, the situation is likely only to deteriorate further. Russia’s missile deployments […]

Arms Control Missile Defense

New Atlanticist

May 6, 2016

Why NATO Allies Should Be Worried About the Scottish Elections

By John Johnston

NATO partners must take a closer look at the defense policies of Scottish political parties in the wake of the Scottish National Party’s historic election victory on May 5 and its leader’s declaration that she reserves the right to hold a second independence referendum if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union “against our will.” […]

NATO Nuclear Nonproliferation
Load More

Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief May 1, 2023

US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity

By Keir Lieber, Daryl G. Press

Keir Lieber and Daryl Press lay out a vision for the future of US nuclear doctrine and strategy under the condition of nuclear tripolarity.
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Nov 15, 2023

US homeland missile defense: Room for expanded roles

By Robert Soofer and Matthew Costlow

Matthew Costlow & Robert Soofer explore how expanded roles for US homeland missile defense could enhance deterrence with two nuclear peers
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Report Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.
Arms Control China

Report

Apr 11, 2025

The imperative of augmenting US theater nuclear forces

By Greg Weaver

The United States and its allies and partners face an impending change in the threats they face from nuclear-armed adversaries: a strategic environment marked by two nuclear peer major powers.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Issue Brief

Feb 20, 2025

Issue brief: A NATO strategy for countering Russia

By Ian Brzezinski, Ryan Arick

Russia poses the most direct and growing threat to NATO member states’ security. This threat now includes the war in Ukraine, militarization in the Arctic, hybrid warfare, and arms control violations. Despite NATO’s military and economic superiority, a unified and effective strategy is essential to counter Russia’s aggression.

Cybersecurity Defense Technologies

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

Welcome to 2035: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 350 experts

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Africa China

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

The Global Foresight 2025 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Africa China

Report

Feb 7, 2025

Toplines: The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

By Markus Garlauskas

The “toplines” from Markus Garlauskus’ report on two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security.

Arms Control China
Load More

Past events

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow’s and Beijing’s defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 3:00 pm ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 pm ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
Online Event Wed, July 27, 2022 • 12:00 pm ET

Future Foreign Policy: A new nuclear era?
Arms Control China Nuclear Deterrence Nuclear Nonproliferation
Load More

In the news

In the News

Apr 24, 2025

Soofer and Massa discuss homeland missile defense on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory speaker series

By Atlantic Council

On March 6, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for GlobalSecurity Research featured Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer and Forward Defense deputy director Mark Massa in their ongoing speaker series. In the dialogue, they discuss the future of homeland missile defense, specifically in reference to their co-authored report, “‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Apr 17, 2025

Soofer quoted in Politico article entitled, “Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War”

By Atlantic Council

On April 11, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in a Politico article entitled, “Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War.” In discussing US extended deterrence, Soofer is quoted saying, “What makes the South Koreans nervous is the fear that we wouldn’t risk San Francisco to save Seoul.”

Arms Control China

In the News

Apr 8, 2025

Lt Col Edward Brady, USAF, commentary published by War on the Rocks

By Atlantic Council

On April 4, Forward Defense Senior Air Force Fellow Lieutenant Colonel Edward Brady published a commentary on War on the Rocks, entitled, “Greenland’s Military Possibilities for the United States.” The article argues that Greenland is a critical strategic asset for US Arctic defense and global power projection and recommends cost-effective investments in surveillance, infrastructure, and […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Apr 2, 2025

Gen Kevin P. Chilton, USAF (ret.), featured on the Mitchell Institute’s Commander panel

By Atlantic Council

On March 31, Forward Defense distinguished fellow Kevin P. Chilton was featured on the Mitchell Institute’s panel, “Setting the Nuclear Deterrence Record Straight: Commanders’ Perspectives.” On the panel, he joined former US Strategic Command commanders Gen. Robert Kehler, USAF (Ret.), and Adm. Charles A. Richard, USN (Ret.), to discuss the realities of nuclear deterrence today. Additionally, […]

China Defense Industry

In the News

Mar 27, 2025

Soofer featured in Brookings report titled, “An Iron Dome for America?”

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer was quoted in a Brookings report entitled, “An Iron Dome for America?” The article features insights from Soofer’s recent report, “‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense.” Brookings author Michael E. O’Hanlon argues that Soofer’s proposal offers a more realistic alternative to Trump’s ambitious “Golden Dome” vision, suggesting […]

China Defense Industry
Load More

Subscribe to stay engaged

Sign up for updates from Forward Defense to hear the latest on the trends, technologies, and military challenges shaping tomorrow.



  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Related experts

Staff

Matthew Kroenig

Vice President and Senior Director, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

China Defense Policy

Fellow

Robert Soofer

Senior Fellow

Forward Defense

Arms Control Defense Policy

Fellow

Jan M. Lodal

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Security & Defense

Board director

Franklin D. Kramer

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Transatlantic Security Initiative

Cybersecurity Defense Policy

Fellow

Barry Pavel

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Fellow

Kevin P. Chilton

Distinguished Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Cybersecurity Defense Industry

Fellow

Hans Binnendijk

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Transatlantic Security Initiative

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Fellow

Patrick O’Reilly

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Drones

Fellow

Scott Jerabek

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Technologies Iraq

Staff

Markus Garlauskas

Director

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Crisis Management Indo-Pacific

Fellow

Keir Lieber

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

China Defense Policy

Fellow

James McCue

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

National Security Nuclear Deterrence

Fellow

Daryl G. Press

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Arms Control Defense Policy

Fellow

Amy Woolf

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Missile Defense

Fellow

Rachel Whitlark

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense

Defense Policy Israel

Fellow

Neil Narang

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Conflict Defense Technologies

Staff

Mark J. Massa

Deputy Director

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy National Security

Staff

Alyxandra Marine

Assistant Director

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Crisis Management Defense Policy

Staff

Jonathan Rosenstein

Program Assistant

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Nuclear Deterrence

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.

Learn more