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Sep 19, 2024

NATO-Russia dynamics: Prospects for reconstitution of Russian military power

By Andrew A. Michta, Joslyn Brodfuehrer

The Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, brought war to the North Atlantic Alliance’s doorstep—altering the political-military dynamics between NATO and its neighbor to the east. Since the Russian invasion, NATO has been undergoing a dramatic change that has impacted its plans, command structure, Force Model, and capabilities requirements. The effectiveness of this change must be gauged against the adversary’s ability to field its forces and resource them in a way that negatively impacts the Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s ability to execute the new regional plans. The delta between how quickly Russia can rebuild its military and how quickly NATO can rearm, especially the European allies, will define the risk level for the Alliance should deterrence fail. A credible assessment of the speed with which Russia can reconstitute and expand its military—especially its land forces component, which has been significantly attritted during the current campaign in Ukraine—is crucial to accurately assessing NATO’s overall force posture and ability to respond should Russia choose to attack a member of the Alliance. Here, the expertise and assessments of the United States’ allies most exposed to the Russian threat along the eastern flank offer valuable insights from the frontline, augmented by their regional expertise and understanding of Russian culture, politics, and military infused with centuries of experience of living next door to Russia.

Central Europe Eastern Europe

UkraineAlert

Jul 18, 2024

Hungarian PM Orban poses as unlikely peacemaker for Russia’s Ukraine war

By Dmytro Tuzhanskyi

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban recently embarked on a global "peace mission" to end the war in Ukraine but he may actually be more interested in strengthening his own position, writes Dmytro Tuzhanskyi.

China Conflict

New Atlanticist

Jul 12, 2024

Czech president: Don’t expect a ‘significant breakthrough’ in the war in Ukraine for the ‘foreseeable future’

By Katherine Walla

The support required to allow Ukrainians to fully reclaim their territory is “not realistic at this time,” Petr Pavel argued at an Atlantic Council Front Page event.

Central Europe China

Inflection Points Today

Jul 9, 2024

Putin, Xi, Orbán, and Modi provide a disturbing backdrop to the start of the NATO Summit

By Frederick Kempe

The split screens haunting the NATO Summit include a deadly attack on a children’s hospital and meetings with autocrats in Moscow and Beijing.

China Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Jul 5, 2024

Dispatch from Warsaw: Poland’s military and economic rise is coming just in time, as the West wobbles

By Daniel Fried

Its rise at home and its strategic clarity about Russia have placed Poland in the first rank of European powers for the first time in centuries.

NATO Poland

New Atlanticist

Jun 20, 2024

How the far right could shape the future of the European Parliament

By Joely Virzi

Big questions remain around what Alternative for Germany, Hungary’s Fidesz party, and Brothers of Italy will do next.

Elections Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Jun 1, 2024

Xi Jinping visited Europe to divide it. What happens next could determine if he succeeds.

By Zoltán Fehér

The Chinese leader's mission during his May 5-10 trip to France, Serbia, and Hungary was to sow division in Europe and to rally countries against “de-risking.”

China Economy & Business

EnergySource

May 23, 2024

From Vilnius to Warsaw: How to Advance Three Seas Goals Between Summits

By Olga Khakova

To define regional goals of digital, transport, and energy integration, the leaders of the Three Seas Initiative member states and partners meet annually. But to make real progress toward these goals, they must now create a secretariat to coordinate and act on challenges throughout the year.

Central Europe Eastern Europe

EnergySource

May 23, 2024

Without tariffs, the EU faces a flood of Chinese imports of the ‘new three’

By Joseph Webster

Europe faces a surge in Chinese cleantech imports following recent US tariffs. This should prompt Brussels to selectively impose its own tariffs while also strengthening domestic industries to protect its economic and strategic interests.

Central Europe China

New Atlanticist

May 21, 2024

Bridging the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic seas would serve both European and NATO interests

By Kaush Arha, Adam Eberhardt, Paolo Messa, and George Scutaru

Strategic corridors linking Constanța, Gdańsk, and Trieste would be transformative force multipliers for European peace and prosperity.

Central Europe Eastern Europe

Experts