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Econographics

Sep 18, 2023

How Germany’s security strategy incorporates economic resilience

By Hung Tran

The National Security Strategy represents a step forward for Germany, but highlights how difficult “integrated security” can be.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Aug 31, 2023

Indonesia’s economy will surpass Russia’s sooner than expected. Here’s what that says about the global economy.

By Josh Lipsky, Niels Graham

In 2026, Indonesia is expected to surpass Russia to become the world’s sixth largest economy

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

Econographics

Aug 25, 2023

Understanding the growing use of local currencies in cross-border payments

By Hung Tran

Local currencies don’t threaten the dollar, but they’re changing how payments are made around the world.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Aug 23, 2023

What Brazil’s “multipolar” foreign policy means for the Bretton Woods institutions

By Jack Tapay-Cueva and David Dong

The BWIs must address the evolving attitudes of countries like Brazil to maintain their relevance in an ever-changing global order.

Brazil China

Econographics

Aug 17, 2023

The Chinese economy’s moment of macro weakness—in charts

By Niels Graham

The Chinese economy is weakening as seen through indicators related to its property and manufacturing sectors, unemployment, inflation, and trade.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Aug 15, 2023

Two credit downgrades in the US are a much-needed warning 

By Hung Tran

Fitch’s decision to downgrade US long-term credit ratings is another warning sign. Neither the complacency of markets nor the forced optimism of officials reflects the seriousness of rating agencies’ concerns with the US economy.

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

Econographics

Aug 3, 2023

Southern Europe is the continent’s new economic growth engine

By Sophia Busch and Phillip Meng

The Eurozone returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023. Yet this modest success story has not applied to everyone. Southern Europe’s major economies are driving European economic growth, thanks to roaring tourism and demand for services and luxury goods.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

Econographics

Jul 31, 2023

China isn’t the only Asian country expanding its trade with Africa

By Phillip Meng

When it comes to Asia-Africa trade, many think of China first. But Beijing is not the only country growing ties. South Korea has accelerated trade, investment, and development initiatives—expanding trading volumes significantly.

Africa China

Econographics

Jul 27, 2023

The G20 still hasn’t made a breakthrough on sovereign debt restructuring

By Hung Tran

The G20’s recent meeting failed to make progress on sovereign debt restructuring, disappointing low and middle-income countries. Zambia’s deal favored China’s preferences, revealing the challenges in establishing an equitable framework for debt relief.

Africa China

Econographics

Jul 19, 2023

Global Sanctions Dashboard: Sanctions alone won’t stop the Wagner Group 

By Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, and Ryan Murphy

Existing sanctions against the Wagner Group, limitations around enforcing them, and what more Western allies can do to counter Wagner’s influence in Africa.

Africa Economic Sanctions

Content

EconoGraphics

Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

By BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

In July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union