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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2019

What Ukraine needs from the west isn’t just cash

By
Danylo Lubkivsky

In 2019, Ukraine celebrates the centennial anniversary of the unification of its national lands. On January 22, 1919, the Act of Union marked a historic milestone: for the first time in centuries, the Ukrainian people had revived their nation and unified most of its territories. Then Russian aggression destroyed our freedom, like it did again […]


Conflict


Defense Policy


UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

Zelenskiy wins first round but that’s not the surprise

By
Mattia Nelles

The results of the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election did not surprise many. The four exit polls were remarkably close to one another and to the last comprehensive polls. They all displayed a similar picture: Volodymyr Zelenskiy would face off in the run-off with Poroshenko, who beat Tymoshenko. With the votes now counted, Zelenskiy […]


Conflict


Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

How Poroshenko could win and Zelenskiy could lose

By
Alexander J. Motyl

The first round of Ukraine’s presidential election went overwhelmingly to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but his victory in round two is by no means self-evident—especially if his rival, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, plays his cards right. Ironically, Poroshenko’s three main strengths are Zelenskiy’s three main weaknesses. Poroshenko has a distinguished record (with a variety of blemishes, of […]


Elections


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

Who is really advising Zelenskiy?

By
Daniel Szeligowski

Showman Volodymyr Zelenskiy may soon become the next president of Ukraine. His chances of winning the second round, slated for April 21, are high. He has long prepared to go into politics, thus his victory in the first round was neither sudden nor unexpected. However, he lacks any political experience and seems to have little […]


Democratic Transitions


Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 3, 2019

When javelins aren’t enough

By
Diane Francis

Several US military experts were asked about the best way forward and were divided as to priorities: More military aid, more diplomacy, more sanctions, a clean-up of Ukrainian corruption, or all in varying degrees.


Conflict


European Union


UkraineAlert

Apr 3, 2019

What Zelenskiy needs to do to next

By
Basil Kalymon

On March 31, Ukrainians gave a first-round victory to Volodymyr Zelenskiy for president with an endorsement of just over 30 percent. The incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, obtained around 16 percent, entering the runoff over third placed Yulia Tymoshenko. The voters clearly expressed their disillusionment with the existing political establishment and have chosen as frontrunner an outsider […]


Conflict


Elections


UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2019

What the business community wants from Ukraine’s next president

By
Andy Hunder

Sending law enforcement officers in balaclavas armed with Kalashnikovs kicking down a company’s office door in a frantic search for financial records or tax documents is quite possibly the worst message a government can send to business owners, shareholders or executives. This is what I told President Petro Poroshenko a couple of years ago in […]


Elections


Fiscal and Structural Reform


UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2019

What does comedian’s big win mean for Ukraine?

By
Volodymyr Yermolenko

Comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy won the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election on March 31 and has a strong chance of winning the run-off on April 21. Zelenskiy will face incumbent Petro Poroshenko, who won just under 16 percent. Zelenskiy’s strong performance caught some off-guard, but the results of the election says at least seven important […]


Democratic Transitions


Elections


UkraineAlert

Mar 29, 2019

Whoever wins Ukraine’s presidential race, Russia has already lost

By
Peter Dickinson

It’s election season on Kremlin TV, but the presidential campaign receiving wall-to-wall coverage from Russia’s federal channels is taking place across the border in Ukraine. This is hardly surprising. Moscow’s obsession with all things Ukrainian is well-documented and reflects the centrality of information operations to Vladimir Putin’s five-year hybrid war against Ukraine. What’s interesting about […]


Conflict


Defense Policy


UkraineAlert

Mar 29, 2019

Who gains from using the far-right in Ukraine’s elections?

By
Taras Kuzio

The G-7 wrote to Minister of Interior Arsen Avakov about the threat to Ukraine’s presidential election from the far-right National Corps political party and National Militia civic organization, both led by Andriy Biletsky with whom he has had a long relationship. The G-7 warned, “They intimidate Ukrainian citizens, try to usurp the role of the […]


Elections


Extremism

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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Content

UkraineAlert

Jan 26, 2018

Lethal Weapons to Ukraine: A Primer

By Peter J. Marzalik and Aric Toler

On December 22, 2017, the Trump administration approved supplying Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, capping a nearly three-year debate in Washington over whether the United States should provide lethal defensive weapons to counter further Russian aggression in Europe. A few days prior the US Department of State announced that senior officials had authorized a sizeable […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 25, 2018

Will the Kremlin’s Most Important Ally in Europe Be Reelected?

By Veronika Víchová, Markéta Krejčí, and Klára Veverka

One day remains until the second round of the Czech presidential election, and polls show a tie with 10 percent of voters undecided. The race pits the current president, Miloš Zeman, against the former chairman of the Academy of Sciences, Jiří Drahoš. New reports allege that there’s a hidden scheme to support pro-Russian president Zeman—at […]

Central Europe Russia

UkraineAlert

Jan 24, 2018

What Lavrov’s Lies Mean for Ukraine

By Stephen Blank

Voltaire reportedly said that those who can persuade one to believe absurdities will lead one to commit atrocities. In contemporary politics Russia’s stance on Ukraine represents a cardinal example of the enduring validity of his remark. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently restated three lies: there are no Russian troops in the Donbas, the conflict […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 22, 2018

Russia Cannot Acknowledge MH17 Role without Exposing Secret Ukraine War

By Peter Dickinson

The shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014, transformed a localized post-Soviet conflict into a major global crisis. With victims from eleven different countries including 189 Dutch citizens, the international backlash was prompt and marked a clear escalation in the confrontation between Russia and the West over the war […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 22, 2018

Justice Deferred but Not Yet Denied

By Mykhailo Zhernakov

2017 was a pivotal year in Ukraine, but not the way we expected. We were supposed to get a brand new Supreme Court to replace four old cassation courts that were synonymous with corruption and abuse. Instead, it was new only on paper.

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 22, 2018

Ukraine: Where Watchdogs Need Safeguards

By Luke Drabyn and Samantha Feinstein

It is ironic but fitting that in Ukraine, the agency tasked with protecting whistleblowers has instead fostered so much corruption that its own employees, after speaking out, have become victims of retaliation. In mid-November, Hanna Solomatina, the former head of the financial control department within the National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP), alleged that she […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 22, 2018

When Will We See a Breakthrough in Ukraine?

By Pavlo Sheremeta

When asked what the exchange rate will be in 2018, I answer a question with a question: when will elections in Ukraine take place? A definite answer  is hard to come by in our country. Only one thing is certain: the fight in Ukraine will continue. Anders Åslund, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 18, 2018

Ukraine’s Making Real Progress in the Energy Sector

By Olga Bielkova

Energy independence is a question of national security for Ukraine, and one that we worked on assiduously in 2017. Most observers know that Naftogaz emerged victorious in an $80 billion arbitration case in Stockholm, but that’s only part of the story. Here are the big five milestones that really mattered for the energy sector last […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 18, 2018

Why Russia’s Soft Power Is Here to Stay (At Least for Now)

By Matthew Finkel

Hydrocarbon exports remain the centerpiece of Russia’s national revival strategy, despite the negative impact of developmental and investment setbacks, OPEC price dumping in traditional Russian export markets, Western sanctions, and a growing push toward energy independence in Eastern Europe. Russia continues to suffer from many of the classic symptoms of Dutch disease: a number of […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Jan 18, 2018

Why Poroshenko’s Anti-Corruption Court Is a Sham Proposal

By Anastasia Krasnosilska

Ukrainians want corrupt public officials to go to jail. It didn’t happen in 2014, 2015, 2016, or 2017. In July, a Kyiv court released Roman Tymkiv, the head of a state-owned military plant, on bail. Tymkiv was accused of embezzling $1 million by supplying the Ukrainian army with used tank engines for the price of […]

Ukraine