Post-Covid-19The coronavirus pandemic has put US global leadership at stake.
Countries are waiting to see how quickly the United States moves past the crisis, whether it takes on the mantle of global leadership in response to the pandemic, and if authoritarian powers, particularly China, more effectively weather the storm.
This article is part of a longer paper—What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios. Download the full paper using the button below.
The global order could, therefore, be fundamentally reshaped by the virus, especially if the world’s major economic powers—the United States, the European Union (EU), and China—suffer an extended economic depression and limit engagement beyond their borders.
The United States also risks a severe decline in soft power if it is seen to be struggling to manage the virus or failing to provide help to partners abroad.
Unencouraging signs
The US record is not encouraging so far at the high political level.
- Washington did not coordinate its decision to close its borders to most European nationals with their governments.
- Unlike after the 2008 financial crisis, the G7 and G20 meetings have been perfunctory, with every country looking after itself and taking measures to stop the spread of the virus domestically.
At the institutional level, however, the Federal Reserve has been “unshackled,” working with its international counterparts to temper the dollar flight in the developing world and ensure there are enough dollars for foreign businesses.
If there were an international meltdown, such as happened in the 1930s, the US recovery would be that much harder.
The test of leadership will really come once the United States has started its recovery and others are still struggling. Will Washington turn back to “America First” or position itself to help those in the developing world who will be hard hit, too? Very little of the $2.2 trillion package is dedicated to the international recovery.
See where US leadership is most vulnerable
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
A step change in Sino-American relations
Bipartisan agreement that China is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with frustration that China is pulling out of the crisis before the US, could strengthen China’s authoritarian tendencies while pushing the US toward isolationism.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Another test for Europe
The third pan-European crisis in a decade could further weaken EU solidarity, further widening gaps between Northern Europe and the Mediterranean South. Europe is unlikely to retain a multilateralist framework without US assistance and acquiescence from China.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
East Asian allies dismayed by America first approach
Absent a vibrant American commitment to helping its traditional East Asian allies restart their economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China could step in, gaining influence in East Asia at the US’s expense.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Middle East turmoil even before pandemic hits
Weak public health systems, an over-reliance on hydrocarbons for economic growth, and a collapse in tourism point to particular disaster across the Middle East. Recovery will be long and slow absent intervention from non-regional powers.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?
The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent’s recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
An economic test for Putin and Russia
Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle
Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster
A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan’s military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country’s weak public health system.
Shaping the Post-COVID World Together by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Scenarios for a post-COVID world
About the authors
