The US foreign policy elite worries that the United States could lose the global leadership contest with China if Washington perseveres with its “America First” approach. See, for example, Kurt M. Campbell and Rushi Doshi, “The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order,”¹Foreign Affairs, March 18, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-03-18/coronavirus-could-reshape-global-order.

There is bipartisan agreement that China is to blame for the coronavirus outbreak. Chinese wild animal markets have long been seen as a danger for pandemic outbreaks. Both Democrats and Republicans are incensed about the US dependence on China for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.

Post-COVID-19

The full text of the paper is split across the various articles linked below. Readers can browse in any order. To download a PDF version, use the button below.

At a minimum, a decoupling in this and other realms seems in the offing. Never again should the United States find itself in such a disadvantageous position vis-à-vis China.

US global leadership at risk

This article is part of a series examining the ways that US global leadership could be threatened in a post-COVID-19 world. Click below to read the main entry in the series.

Compounding the anger is the realization that China is pulling out of the crisis ahead of the United States and is already starting its economic recovery. The most recent Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecast shows China recovering to the point of having 2-3 percent GDP growth for the year.

All Western countries, including the United States, will lose GDP. 

In the short term, both the United States and China may need each other to ensure a chance at a global recovery.

In 2008, China reflated its economy and, in doing so, helped the rest of the world recover. In late May, Chinese leaders announced a much smaller stimulus package.  Beijing will issue bonds and raise the fiscal deficit by only a combined RMB 5.8 trillion ($813 billion).²Sun Yu, “China Signals Room Left to Borrow in Drive for Economic Rebound,” Financial Times, May 24, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/0b763997-0561-442b-88df-1b24af98dae0.

China does not appear to have the same capacity or willingness for a large recovery package. China’s total debt load amounts to about 310 percent, and some observers believe it does not have the appetite for a major economic stimulus initiative.³David Lubin, “China’s Post-Virus Stimulus: No Silver Bullet,” Financial Times, March 6, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/e1f5df86-36af-4fa2-9cdd-666ffa524926; Editorial Board, “China Should Stand Up to Revive Global Demand,” Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/b19ffca2-7030-11ea-89df-41bea055720b. If the global recovery is long and halting, and does not deliver on jobs, both leaderships in the United States and China will face real tests and in this soured atmosphere, protectionism and Sino-American frictions will become even stronger.

The bottom line is, the COVID-19 pandemic may end up reinforcing Xi and the Communist Party of China’s (CPC’s) authoritarian tendencies on the one hand, and an “America First” reaction on the other. 

See where US leadership is most vulnerable

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

A step change in Sino-American relations

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Bipartisan agreement that China is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with frustration that China is pulling out of the crisis before the US, could strengthen China’s authoritarian tendencies while pushing the US toward isolationism.

China Coronavirus

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Another test for Europe

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The third pan-European crisis in a decade could further weaken EU solidarity, further widening gaps between Northern Europe and the Mediterranean South. Europe is unlikely to retain a multilateralist framework without US assistance and acquiescence from China.

Coronavirus Europe & Eurasia

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

East Asian allies dismayed by America first approach

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Absent a vibrant American commitment to helping its traditional East Asian allies restart their economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China could step in, gaining influence in East Asia at the US’s expense.

Coronavirus East Asia

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Middle East in turmoil even before pandemic hit

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak public health systems, an over-reliance on hydrocarbons for economic growth, and a collapse in tourism point to particular disaster across the Middle East. Recovery will be long and slow absent intervention from non-regional powers.

Coronavirus Middle East

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent’s recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.

Africa Coronavirus

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

An economic test for Putin and Russia

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.

Coronavirus Russia

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.

Coronavirus Latin America

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Jul 7, 2020

India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan’s military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country’s weak public health system.

Coronavirus South Asia

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Prospects for the COVID-19 pandemic

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The COVID-19 pandemic is not just a global health crisis. It could spark global recession, while undermining globalism, cooperation and multilateralism, ushering in a renewed era of authoritarianism, isolation and open conflict between global powers.

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About the Authors

Staff

Mathew Burrows

Director of Foresight, Scowcroft Strategy Initiative

New American Engagement Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Non-Traditional Threats Technology & Innovation

Staff

Peter Engelke

Deputy Director of Foresight, Scowcroft Strategy Initiative

Global Energy Center Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Technology & Innovation Europe & Eurasia

Image: A worker works at a textile factory in Qingzhou city, east China's Shandong province, 18 March 2020.