Report Aug 16, 2023
The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia
By Markus Garlauskas
This report highlights two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security: 1) Horizontal escalation of a conflict with China or North Korea into simultaneous conflict; 2) Vertical escalation to a limited nuclear attack by either or both adversaries to avoid conceding.
Report Nov 9, 2023
Deterrence is crumbling in Korea: How we can fix it
By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert
Conventional wisdom in the United States holds that deterrence in Korea is strong, but this widespread confidence is based on a backward look at long-standing assumptions that are no longer tenable, along with rapidly shifting politico-military conditions. This report explains the urgent actions required to get ahead of these changes and maintain effective deterrence.
New AtlanticistNov 22, 2023
China’s acoustic aggression against a US ally follows a pattern. Military talks won’t help.
By Markus Garlauskas and Philip Yu
On November 14, a Chinese warship used its active sonar to harass and injure two Australian Royal Navy divers with high-powered sound waves.
In the NewsNov 20, 2023
Article by Garlauskas, Webster, and Verges cited widely in Congressional report
A New Atlanticist article on the PRC’s non-lethal aid to Russia by IPSI’s Markus Garlauskas and Emma Verges and GEC’s Joseph Webster was cited ten times in the 2023 Report to Congress of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
In the NewsNov 16, 2023
New article by Garlauskas, Webster, and Verges featured in Politico newsletter
On November 15, a recent New Atlanticist article by IPSI’s Markus Garlauskas and Emma Verges and GEC’s Joseph Webster was featured in the “What to Read” section of Politico’s National Security Daily newsletter.
Markus Garlauskas is the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He leads this new initiative’s efforts focused on security, prosperity, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. He led projects focused on deterrence and defense issues in East Asia as a nonresident senior fellow from August 2020 until assuming his duties as director in January 2023.
Garlauskas served in the US government for nearly twenty years. He was appointed to the Senior National Intelligence Service as the National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for North Korea on the National Intelligence Council from July 2014 to June 2020. As NIO, he led the US intelligence community’s strategic analysis on North Korea issues and expanded analytic outreach to non-government experts. He also provided direct analytic support to top-level policy deliberations, including the presidential transition, as well as the Singapore and Hanoi summits with North Korea.
Garlauskas served for nearly twelve years overseas at the headquarters of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and US Forces Korea in Seoul. His staff assignments there included chief of the Intelligence Estimates Branch and director of the Strategy Division. For his service in Korea, he received the Joint Civilian Distinguished Service Award, the highest civilian award from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Garlauskas holds a BA in History from Kent State University. He earned a Master’s Degree from Georgetown University’s Security Studies graduate program, where he is now an adjunct professor.