In-depth research and reports

Russia’s Shrinking Population and the Russian Military’s HIV/AIDS Problem

Russia’s rapidly declining population will soon no longer be able to support the current size of the Russian military. The number of Russian males turning 18-years-old is forecasted to drop by about 50 percent in the next 10 to 15 years. This approaching population decline requires significant structural reform within the Russian military. Yet, Russia’s […]

China’s rise and US influence in Asia

Following the publication of his most recent book, China’s Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils, Dr. Robert Sutter embarked on a research trip in spring-summer 2006 which involved dozens of workshops to explore China’s rise and U.S. leadership in Asia. These workshops were attended by several hundred non-government specialists and elites in 21 cities of […]

Whither the European Union?

The stunning rout of the proposed EU constitution a year ago in the referenda in the Netherlands and France leads one to wonder, a year later, where Europe goes from here. One must also consider what went wrong and whether circumstances have changed, or will change, sufficiently to allow another approach to a European charter, […]

Libya and the United States: The Next Steps

Over the past several years, the Atlantic Council’s International Security Program has taken a position that, in due course, the United States’ adversarial relationships with countries, such as Libya, Iran, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea will eventually be restructured both in recognition of changes in the nature or policies of these difficult regimes, and in […]

Transatlantic Transformation: Building a NATO-EU Security Architecture

Since 1989, the security environment facing the United States and its European allies has changed beyond recognition. The Soviet Union has disintegrated, as has the division of Europe between East and West, and new threats have arisen. The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated that instability and war emerging from failing states could affect […]

Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Ambitions

By Steven Pifer

Since his inauguration in January 2005, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has repeatedly stated that his foremost foreign policy goal is his country’s integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. “Joining Europe” today, be it preparing a country for a bid to enter the European Union or NATO, is an extraordinarily complex business. It will require the […]

China: What could go wrong?

By Harry Harding

China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a […]

China succeeding beyond expectations

By Albert Keidel

What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with […]

China as a regional player

By Edward J. Lincoln

China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. […]

China and the World Economy Workshop

The Workshop on China and the World Economy, sponsored by the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State, convened December 7, 2005, and January 9, 2006, at the Atlantic Council. The conference was chaired by Franklin D. Kramer of the Atlantic Council. Robert A. Kapp […]

China as employer and consumer: Economic outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

By Arthur R. Kroeber

Economic growth in China is underpinned by very powerful structural factors that will remain in place for many years. These factors suggest that China will be able to sustain a high rate of growth in output and job creation during the period when the population of working age is at its peak (2005-2015), and that […]

China as consumer

By Kenneth Lieberthal

This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor […]

China as producer: Chinese industry after 25 years of reform

By Thomas Rawski

Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China’s industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and […]

Hu Jintao’s outbox

By Joseph Fewsmith

This paper addresses the challenges facing China’s surging economy.  As the country’s economy grows and becomes more open to the world market, it is also emerging as a greater force in the world economy. Furthermore, the party/state has (so far) been remarkably effective in adapting both to the governmental challenges of providing more regularized and […]

The Future of NATO-Russian Relations: Or, How to Dance with a Bear and Not Get Mauled

By Gordon B. Hendrickson

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its […]

Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat

This paper summarizes three Atlantic Council conferences on terrorism. Each conference, held in Europe, focuses on two or three select topics, from likely future terrorist weapons and targets to the “war of ideas,” the burgeoning terrorism-drugs-organized crime nexus, and other key concerns. Download the PDF

Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing

This Atlantic Council report examines the geopolitical context that will likely frame the security environment of the next 20 to 40 years and identifies the implications of U.S. bases in foreign countries. We organized a group of former senior military leaders, diplomats, business leaders, and other experts, with the goal of pooling their wisdom and […]

In search of a legacy: Three possible paths for Taiwan’s Chen Shui-bian

By Kay Webb Mayfield

Time and circumstances make it more and more unlikely that Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian will declare de jure independence for Taiwan during his term of office, but Chen has not abandoned his quest for a resolution of Taiwan’s status. The People’s Republic of China and the United States are on guard for new independence-leaning initiatives […]