Politics & Diplomacy

The top ten risks and opportunities for 2021

By Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning

COVID-19, the kind of “grey swan” event that is predicted but never pinpointed in time, finally came calling in 2020. Drawing on years of foresight experience at the US National Intelligence Council, we are assessing the top 10 risks and opportunities in the new year, for the US in particular, but with global implications.

Seek membership for Mexico: NATO 20/2020 podcast

By Christopher Skaluba, Gabriela R. A. Doyle

Mexico’s membership in NATO may be the key to keeping a rapidly changing America invested in European security.

What Sudan’s terror delisting really means

The announcement today that the forty-five day notification period to Congress had elapsed and Sudan was finally off the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list is historic. It validates the new direction of the country, which it was set upon nearly two years ago by nationwide, peaceful street protests. More importantly, it represents a definitive break with Sudan’s troubled past—the true end of the Bashir era, which began more than thirty years ago—and holds out the hope for a more prosperous future for all Sudanese. The weight of the moment cannot be understated.

Russian aid in Syria: An underestimated instrument of soft power

By Jonathan Robinson

Free from needing outside help by the international community, Russia’s self-sufficient aid ecosystem undermines, devalues, and rivals UN-led efforts in Syria, threatens to erode trust in the wider aid system, and provides a dangerous alternative narrative about the humanitarian environment in Syria for the Bashar al-Assad regime.