The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Nuclear Strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation.

Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure.

Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms Control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment.

Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile Defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China.

Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging Threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy.

Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must read

Issue Brief

Dec 20, 2022

Arms racing under nuclear tripolarity: Evidence for an action-reaction cycle?

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues that there has not been a nuclear arms race since the Cold War—but that China’s nuclear buildup might start one.

Arms Control China

Commentary & quick analysis

New Atlanticist

Feb 22, 2023

Russia policy after the war: A new strategy of containment

By Alexander Vershbow

To prevent further damage to the rules-based international order, the United States and its allies will need a strategy of containment to deter Russia militarily and decouple Russia from the international community, until Moscow has earned the right to be considered a partner once more.

Arms Control Defense Policy

New Atlanticist

Feb 3, 2023

Five questions (and expert answers) about the curious case of the Chinese spy balloon

By Atlantic Council experts

US fighter jets have shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon, but the tensions linger in the world’s most important bilateral relationship. Our experts float their takes.

China Indo-Pacific

New Atlanticist

Nov 3, 2022

Inside the US Nuclear Posture Review’s approach to a new era of three-power nuclear competition

By Katherine Walla

The Atlantic Council hosted current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials to outline the top takeaways from the strategy.

China Nuclear Deterrence

New Atlanticist

Oct 28, 2022

Putin’s next escalation is coming. How should the West respond?

By Hans Binnendijk, Alexander Vershbow, and Julian Lindley-French

Policymakers must strike a balance to deter and, if necessary, respond to escalation in ways that impose heavy costs for Russian misbehavior but do not further escalate the conflict.

Conflict Europe & Eurasia

New Atlanticist

Oct 27, 2022

Eight things you need to know about the new US National Defense Strategy

By Atlantic Council experts

Does the strategy succeed? We turned to our experts to break down the Pentagon’s plans.

Defense Policy National Security

Reports & issue briefs

Issue Brief

Dec 20, 2022

Arms racing under nuclear tripolarity: Evidence for an action-reaction cycle?

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues that there has not been a nuclear arms race since the Cold War—but that China’s nuclear buildup might start one.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Nov 5, 2022

Strengthening deterrence with SLCM-N

By John R. Harvey and Robert Soofer

John Harvey and Robert Soofer argue that the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile is necessary to deter Russia and China

China Defense Policy

Report

Apr 21, 2022

Climbing the ladder: How the West can manage escalation in Ukraine and beyond

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s response increase the possibility of purposeful or inadvertent escalation in Europe. Understanding how these dynamics might impact the war and further degrade transatlantic stability is critical.

Cybersecurity Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Mar 9, 2022

Defending every inch of NATO territory: Force posture options for strengthening deterrence in Europe

By The Scowcroft Center Task Force on Deterrence and Force Posture

Deterrence in Europe can be enhanced through a range of US and NATO force posture enhancements.

Conflict Defense Policy

Report

Dec 23, 2021

Proactively countering North Korea’s advancing nuclear threat

By Markus Garlauskas

Markus Garlauskas suggests a strategy to counter North Korean nuclear weapons by impeding the growth of its arsenal, investing to stay ahead of new nuclear threats, and adjusting operations on the Korean Peninsula.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Past events

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Forward Defense

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, shapes the debate around the greatest military challenges facing the United States and its allies, and creates forward-looking assessments of the trends, technologies, and concepts that will define the future of warfare.