The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Oct 13, 2023

What needs to change about US nuclear weapons strategy?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts break down the 2023 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States report.
China Indo-Pacific
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 3, 2024

The US is building a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile. Congress must make sure it’s built right.

By Robert Soofer

There are forces at play—bureaucratic, budgetary, and programmatic—that could stymie the SLCM-N if US lawmakers do not pay close attention.
Defense Technologies Nuclear Deterrence
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Aug 21, 2014

At NATO summit, the Alliance should re-affirm role of its nuclear arms

By New Atlanticist

As NATO leaders prepare for their annual summit conference in two weeks, they should be ready to re-affirm the importance to the Alliance of nuclear weapons, including US nuclear warheads deployed in Europe, several Atlantic Council analysts say in two new essays. Three Atlantic Council board directors who served as top presidential advisers on security […]

NATO Nuclear Nonproliferation

New Atlanticist

Dec 1, 2013

Pavel and Kroenig Discuss Iran Deal on This Week in Defense

Council Vice President and Director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security Barry Pavel and Senior Fellow Matt Kroenig appeared on This Week in Defense with Vago Muradian to discuss the deal that’s been struck on Iran’s nuclear program. Watch the full interview. For more expert analysis and reactions to the deal, check out […]

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

New Atlanticist

Nov 25, 2013

Now for the hard part

By Matthew Kroenig

Early Sunday morning in Geneva, the P5+1 and Iran announced that they had reached an interim deal on Iran’s nuclear program. Many are heralding the agreement as an historic breakthrough, and the deal does indeed buy us time, but it is much too early to declare victory. Indeed, the Iranian nuclear crisis might still very […]

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

New Atlanticist

Oct 30, 2013

Leveraging Europe’s Potential for Transatlantic Missile Defense

By Ian Brzezinski and Patrick O’Reilly

One of the most important initiatives concerning US and European security has been the Washington-led effort to build a transatlantic missile defense architecture to counter the growing threat posed by the proliferation of missile technologies. This threat includes Iran’s increasingly capable missiles that many project will be soon able to  strike the United States, as well […]

Missile Defense Security & Defense

New Atlanticist

Oct 25, 2013

Will Turkey Implement Smart Defense?

By Patrick O’Reilly

Prime Minister Erdrogan’s recent announcement that Turkey is in discussions with China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corporation (CPMIEC) to acquire the FD-2000 (export version of the HQ-9) as Turkey’s first long-range anti-missile system is a significant step backward from the “Smart Defense” initiative endorsed by all leaders at the 2012 NATO Summit.

Missile Defense NATO
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Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief May 1, 2023

US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity

By Keir Lieber, Daryl G. Press

Keir Lieber and Daryl Press lay out a vision for the future of US nuclear doctrine and strategy under the condition of nuclear tripolarity.
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Nov 15, 2023

US homeland missile defense: Room for expanded roles

By Robert Soofer and Matthew Costlow

Matthew Costlow & Robert Soofer explore how expanded roles for US homeland missile defense could enhance deterrence with two nuclear peers
China Defense Policy
Nuclear strategy project

Report Feb 2, 2024

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.
Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Jul 24, 2025

Five pillars for deterring strategic attacks

By Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine

As its highest priority, the Department of Defense must deter strategic attacks on the United States. A five-pillar strategy could guide efforts to prevent nuclear and nonnuclear threats while ensuring resilience and readiness against large-scale nuclear attacks on the US homeland.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Report

Jul 3, 2025

The National Defense Strategy Project

By Atlantic Council experts

As the world enters a pivotal new phase in global security, the United States must not only respond to current challenges but also anticipate those on the horizon. 

Artificial Intelligence Defense Policy

Issue Brief

May 30, 2025

New presidents and new nuclear developments test the United States–Republic of Korea alliance

By Heather Kearney, Amanda Mortwedt Oh

In the coming years, the US-South Korea (Republic of Korea, or ROK) alliance is likely to be tested in at least three fundamental ways: by a concerning growth in North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile weapons program; by changes to ROK defense capabilities and structures, including the establishment of ROK Strategic Command (ROKSTRATCOM); and by potential strategy and policy changes under new US and ROK political administrations.

Arms Control Elections

Report

May 12, 2025

A rising nuclear double-threat in East Asia: Insights from our Guardian Tiger I and II tabletop exercises

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert, Kyoko Imai

A decade from now, the United States will face even tougher challenges in the Indo-Pacific than it does today. With this in mind, the Atlantic Council’s Guardian Tiger tabletop exercise series is preparing mid-level government and military leaders to address such threats.

Arms Control China

Report

Apr 11, 2025

The imperative of augmenting US theater nuclear forces

By Greg Weaver

The United States and its allies and partners face an impending change in the threats they face from nuclear-armed adversaries: a strategic environment marked by two nuclear peer major powers.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia
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Past events

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow’s and Beijing’s defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 3:00 pm ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 pm ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
Online Event Wed, July 27, 2022 • 12:00 pm ET

Future Foreign Policy: A new nuclear era?
Arms Control China Nuclear Deterrence Nuclear Nonproliferation
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In the news

In the News

Jul 8, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the Washington Post on nuclear nonproliferation

On July 7, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the Washington Post for a recent op-ed he published titled “The Trump doctrine on nuclear nonproliferation is born.” A nuclear disarmament advocate from Back from the Brink wrote a letter to the editor reacting to the op-ed.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 30, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the Hill on nuclear nonproliferation

On June 30, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the Hill for a recent op-ed he published in the Washington Post on his view of the Trump administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy. An expert from a nonpartisan climate policy think tank reacted to the op-ed and Kroenig’s arguments.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 30, 2025

Kroenig mentioned in the South China Morning Post on nuclear nonproliferation

On June 30, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was mentioned in the South China Morning Post for his June 24th op-ed in the Washington Post on the Trump administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy, as evidenced by its attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A master’s student from the University of […]

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Jun 28, 2025

Kroenig on Fox News on President Trump’s foreign policy at the NATO summit and in Iran

On June 28, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, appeared on Fox News to discuss the NATO summit in The Hague, where allies agreed to a defense spending target of five percent of their GDP, and the US attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Europe & Eurasia Iran

In the News

Jun 24, 2025

Kroenig in the Washington Post on President Trump’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy

On June 24, Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director, was published in the Washington Post on the precedent set by the Trump administration through its attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He argues that “the United States could capitalize on this moment and declare a new foreign policy doctrine of counterproliferation […]

Conflict Iran
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Defense Policy Nuclear Deterrence

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.

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