Europe & Eurasia

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

How 2025’s US tariff shocks can give way to constructive reforms in 2026

By L. Daniel Mullaney

While last year’s US tariff policy was disruptive, it also gave US trade partners a sense of urgency about the need to reform the international trading system and respond to legitimate US concerns.

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea

By Elisabeth Braw

Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administration's move for global maritime norms.

The Putin regime faces mounting pressure but is still far from collapse

By Will Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk

Russia is facing mounting challenges on the battlefield in Ukraine and on the home front, but predictions that the Putin regime is on the brink of collapse remain premature, write Will Dixon and Maksym Beznosiuk.

Death by cold: Russia is attempting to freeze millions of Ukrainian civilians

By Kristina Hook

Russia is methodically bombing Ukraine's power and heating infrastructure amid arctic weather conditions in a bid to freeze millions of Ukrainian civilians and make much of the country unlivable, writes Kristina Hook.

When economic warfare meets gunboat diplomacy: What to know about the US seizures of shadow fleet tankers

By Stephanie Connor

The Trump administration’s seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raises several crucial legal and logistical questions.

Ukrainian democracy is proving its resilience in wartime conditions

By Oleksiy Goncharenko

Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion four years ago, Ukrainians have accepted the necessity of wartime measures to concentrate power while remaining committed to safeguarding the country's hard-won democratic gains, writes Oleksiy Goncharenko.

Vladimir Putin must not have a veto over security guarantees for Ukraine

By Iulian Romanyshyn

If European leaders want to secure a place at the negotiating table, they must demonstrate to the Kremlin that Russia does not have a veto over security guarantees for Ukraine, writes Iulian Romanyshyn.

A new Arctic strategy for Sweden

By David Auerswald

Sweden has the largest Nordic economy, a defense budget double what it was in 2022 and set to grow more, and cross-party consensus behind the foreign policy shifts that led Stockholm to join NATO in 2024. The government can and should shift its approach in the High North to a singular focus on deterring Russia.