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Econographics

Jan 30, 2025

US economic outlook 2025: It’s the productivity, stupid!

By Hung Tran

The range of forecasts for US economic growth in 2025 is unusually wide. Productivity is going to be a major reason for slow or strong growth prospects.

Economy & Business Macroeconomics

Sinographs

Jan 29, 2025

Is DeepSeek a proof of concept?

By Jessie Yin

Understanding how Deepseek emerged from China’s innovation landscape can better equip the US to confront China’s ambitions for global technology leadership.

Artificial Intelligence China

Econographics

Jan 28, 2025

The 2025 crypto policy landscape: Looming EU and US divergences?

By Hung Tran, Barbara C. Matthews

High level regulatory and policy alignment is possible. Divergences, heated rhetoric, and drama are inevitable.

Digital Currencies Economy & Business

Econographics

Jan 23, 2025

What is next for crypto regulation in the US?

By Ananya Kumar

What does success on the regulatory front actually look like? What does it mean for the rest of the world? We dive into the dozen bills under consideration in Congress and zoom in on the three big themes for crypto regulation in 2025.

Digital Currencies Digital Policy

Sinographs

Jan 16, 2025

China’s economic performance: New numbers, same overstatement

By Daniel H. Rosen and Jeremy Smith

Is China’s economic slowdown more severe than reflected in official data? Here’s a cheat sheet for looking at actual economic performance in 2024 and 2025.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Dec 20, 2024

A policy blueprint for the Trump administration’s outbound investment screening regime

By Kit Conklin

As the Trump administration enters its second term, addressing economic and military threats posed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will remain a cornerstone of its foreign policy and legislative agenda. One area primed for action is the expansion of outbound investment restrictions targeting companies and securities associated with the PRC’s military.

Americas China

New Atlanticist

Dec 16, 2024

Once again, China pushes for economic stimulus, hoping for a different result

By Jeremy Mark

Chinese leader Xi Jinping continues to adopt stimulus measures that fail to confront the country’s structural economic challenges.

China Economy & Business
G20 Summit in Rio

Econographics

Nov 27, 2024

Divided COP29 and G20 Summits: A taste of things to come

By Hung Tran

President-Elect Trump’s “America First” approach is already raising concerns at the G20 and COP29.

Brazil Climate Change & Climate Action

Econographics

Nov 22, 2024

Sanctions expectations in a second Trump administration

By Daniel Tannebaum

Sanctions are poised to remain a cornerstone of US foreign policy under a second Trump administration. With a focus on Iran, Russia, and potentially China, Trump’s team may lean on tools like secondary sanctions while navigating a tense geopolitical environment.

China Economic Sanctions

Sinographs

Nov 22, 2024

The United States has trade leverage with China, but not as much as Washington thinks

By Josh Lipsky, Mrugank Bhusari

Diversification away from China is proving far more difficult for high value-added goods such as electronics – and the incoming Trump administration knows that.

China Economy & Business

Content

EconoGraphics

Aug 28, 2019

US-EU Auto Tariffs: What’s at Stake?

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

Escalating trade tensions between the world’s major economies are widely considered the greatest threat to the global economy’s health. Following the White House’s cancellation of its threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports on June 7, attention swiftly turned back to the brewing US-China trade war. This edition of the EconoGraphic, however, puts the focus on how US tariffs on cars and car parts might disrupt transatlantic trade flow.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

By BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

In July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business